# Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election *Politics. 45% certain. Thursday, 1 July 2027* > Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened. **Jordan Bardella was absent from the ballot while François Hollande failed to reach the second round.** The first round of the 2027 French Presidential election was held on Sunday 18 April. Marine Le Pen received the highest number of votes, becoming the first-round winner. Her lead removed the prospect of a runoff under the settled outcome. The ballot did not include Jordan Bardella, who was absent from the list of candidates. Other prominent figures such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon and David Lisnard appeared on the ballot. Despite their participation, none matched Le Pen's vote total. The field was therefore marked by a mix of newcomers and veterans. On Monday 19 April the election result was confirmed, naming Marine Le Pen the overall president-elect. The confirmation followed the first-round count and required no further tally. The settled outcome ended the electoral process for 2027. Former president François Hollande did not advance to a second round. Hollande's exit left the race without a former president in the runoff. The second round scheduled for 2 may was rendered unnecessary by the decisive first-round victory. French political institutions prepared for the transition to Le Pen's administration. The election concluded with a single elected president for the term. ## Analysis Marine Le Pen's victory gives the far-right a direct mandate to shape executive policy for the next five years, potentially altering France's stance on immigration, security and economic reform. The result also places a nationalist leader at the helm of a major EU member, which could affect the country's relationship with European institutions and its role in common foreign-policy initiatives. The absence of Jordan Bardella from the ballot and the elimination of François Hollande indicate a consolidation of the right under Le Pen and a weakening of the traditional left-wing challenge. Uncertainty now centers on Le Pen's ability to govern effectively within a parliamentary system that may remain fragmented. Her administration will need to negotiate with a legislature that could be divided among multiple parties, and the degree of cooperation it secures will determine the scope of policy implementation. ### Background consulted for the analysis - [2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election) - [Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election) - [Navigating the French 2027 elections – Campaigns, electoral systems, and power constellations | Jacques Delors Centre](https://www.delorscentre.eu/en/publications/detail/publication/navigating-the-french-elections) - [France's Hollande says may run in 2027 if victory looks attainable, paper says](https://ground.news/article/frances-hollande-says-may-run-in-2027-if-victory-looks-attainable-paper-says) ## What this was built from - **Next French Presidential Election**: Marine Le Pen, 45%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election) - **French Presidential Election First Round Winner**: Marine Le Pen, 78%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-winner) - **Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: Yes, 89%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round) - **Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: No, 59%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round) - **Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 83%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 80%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 82%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 70%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 88%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 87%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 73%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: No, 94%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round)