# Sweden formed single-party S government as Modi stayed in office

*Politics. 18% certain. Sunday, 1 August 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israel's Ra'am remained outside the coalition while Iran's regime continued unchanged.**

Sweden's parliament approved a single-party government led by the Social Democrats on Sunday. In Israel, the Ra'am party was not included in the new governing coalition announced on Friday. Iran's political leadership remained intact as the regime did not collapse by the end of June. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued in office beyond the June 30 deadline.

The Social Democrats secured enough seats to govern alone, avoiding the need for coalition partners. The vote took place in the Riksdag on Sunday, confirming the party's dominance.

The new Israeli government was formed without the participation of the Arab-Israeli Ra'am party. The coalition combined right-wing and centrist parties to command a parliamentary majority. The exclusion left Ra'am outside the governing alliance.

Iran's political system continued under its existing leadership through the end of June. No signs of a regime change emerged during that period.

Narendra Modi remained prime minister of India past the June 30 cutoff, extending his tenure into mid-2027. His administration continued its policy agenda without interruption. The continuation was confirmed on Thursday.

## Analysis

Sweden's shift to a single-party Social Democratic government simplifies legislative processes but places full responsibility for policy outcomes on one party. Without coalition partners, the party can advance its agenda more directly, though it also bears unmitigated risk if public opinion shifts.

Israel's exclusion of Ra'am removes an Arab-Israeli voice from formal decision-making, potentially affecting the government's domestic legitimacy and its approach to minority concerns. The composition of the coalition may influence Israel's foreign policy posture, especially in negotiations where broader representation could have moderated positions.

The persistence of Iran's regime maintains the status quo in a volatile region, limiting immediate prospects for systemic change. Modi's continued leadership in India ensures policy continuity, affecting both domestic reforms and India's role in regional geopolitics.

## What this was built from

- **Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?**: S, 18%; settles Sunday, 1 August 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-swedish-government)
- **Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?**: No, 84%; settles Wednesday, 30 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?**: No, 84%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027)
- **Modi out by June 30, 2027?**: No, 88%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/modi-out-by-june-30-2027)