# Chiang Wan-an won Taipei mayoral race

*Politics. 55% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**President Lai Ching-te stayed in office and South Korea's Lee Jae-myung remained president.**

Chiang Wan-an won the Taipei mayoral election. President Lai Ching-te remained in office. South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung also stayed on as president.

The Taipei race concluded on Sunday 29 November. Voters chose Chiang over other contenders. The result set the city's leadership for the next term.

Lai Ching-te's presidency continued through the end of 2026. No event removed him from office before 31 December. His administration therefore entered 2027 unchanged.

Lee Jae-myung likewise completed his term without interruption. He was not removed from the presidency in 2026. South Korea's executive leadership remained stable at the start of the New year.

## Analysis

The simultaneous continuity of Taiwan's and South Korea's heads of state signals political stability in two of East Asia's key democracies, allowing existing foreign-policy and security strategies to proceed without abrupt shifts.

Chiang Wan-an's victory in Taipei introduces a New municipal leader whose agenda may align with or diverge from the central DPP administration, potentially influencing local governance, urban development, and cross-strait engagement at the city level.

While continuity reduces immediate uncertainty, external pressures such as China's posture toward Taiwan and North Korea's activities remain variables that could test the administrations' capacity to maintain their current courses in the months ahead.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Lai Ching-te - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lai_Ching-te)
- [Lai Ching-te | Biography, Education, & Facts | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Lai-Ching-te)
- [2026 Taiwanese local elections - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections)
- [Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)](https://english.president.gov.tw/)

## What this was built from

- **Taipei Mayor Election Winner**: Chiang Wan-an, 61%; settles Sunday, 29 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/taipei-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857100)
- **New Taipei Mayor Election Winner**: Su Chiao-hui, 55%; settles Sunday, 29 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-taipei-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857200)
- **Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026)
- **Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)