# Lula qualified for runoff as new governors swept state races *Politics. 43% certain. Thursday, 1 July 2027* > Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened. **Lula moved to the Presidential runoff while Tarcísio de Freitas and ACM Neto won governorships in São Paulo and Bahia.** Lula qualified for the Presidential runoff on Thursday. Fernando Haddad and Michelle Bolsonaro failed to reach the runoff. No candidate secured an outright first-round victory, and Renan Santos finished third. A wave of new governors was elected across Brazil. Tarcísio de Freitas won in São Paulo, while Fábio took Sergipe and Jorginho Mello captured Santa Catarina. Daniel Vilela became governor of Goiás, and Eduardo Braide secured Maranhão. Mailza Assis, Elmano de Freitas, Raquel Lyra, Hana Ghassan and ACM Neto also emerged victorious in Acre, Ceará, Pernambuco, Pará and Bahia respectively. In the senate races, Michelle Bolsonaro topped the Federal District contest. Teresa Surita placed second in Roraima, and Filipe Barros took the second spot in Paraná. These outcomes added to the broader reshuffling of political power at the Federal level. The absence of an outright winner forced a second-round Presidential contest. Lula's advancement set up a head-to-head battle with the remaining runoff qualifier. The election results were certified on Thursday, 1 July. The confirmations concluded the 2026 electoral cycle for both Presidential and state offices. Voters across the nation received the final tallies that day. ## Analysis Lula's progression to the runoff confirms his continued dominance in national politics, but the need for a second round opens the field to renewed competition and coalition building, especially given the fragmented first-round results. The sweep of new governors across diverse regions signals a potential shift in state-level policy agendas, as each winner brings distinct priorities that may diverge from the incumbent administrations, affecting everything from economic development to social programs. Senate outcomes, notably Michelle Bolsonaro's victory in the Federal District and the strong showings of Teresa Surita and Filipe Barros, suggest that established political families retain influence, which could shape legislative dynamics during the upcoming Presidential runoff. ## What this was built from - **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place**: Renan Santos, 43%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place) - **Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: Yes, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff) - **Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?**: No, 94%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election) - **Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: Yes, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff) - **Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff) - **Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff) - **Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place**: Michelle Bolsonaro, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/federal-district-senate-election-1st-place) - **Ceará Governor Election Winner**: Elmano de Freitas, 63%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner) - **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Tarcísio de Freitas, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner) - **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: ACM Neto, 51%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner) - **Maranhão Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Braide, 78%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/maranhao-governor-election-winner-20260611182113297) - **Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner **: Jorginho Mello, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-governor-election-winner-20260609164309743) - **Pernambuco Governor Election Winner**: Raquel Lyra, 61%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/pernambuco-governor-election-winner-20260709143134925) - **Acre Governor Election Winner**: Mailza Assis, 74%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/acre-governor-election-winner) - **Pará Governor Election Winner**: Hana Ghassan, 56%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/para-governor-election-winner-20260609154623298) - **Goiás Governor Election Winner**: Daniel Vilela, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/goias-governor-election-winner-20260609165823163) - **Sergipe Governor Election Winner**: Fábio, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sergipe-governor-election-winner) - **Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Filipe Barros, 53%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-senate-election-2nd-place) - **Roraima Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Teresa Surita, 88%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/roraima-senate-election-2nd-place)