# Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil runoff

*Politics. 35% certain. Thursday, 1 July 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro advanced to Brazil's Presidential runoff while allies secured key governorships and senate seats.**

The first round of Brazil's 2027 Presidential election produced no outright winner, sending the contest to a runoff. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro each secured enough votes to qualify for the second round. The result left the field open for a decisive head-to-head contest.

Allies of the leading candidates captured a series of governorships across the country. In the northeast, ACM Neto won in Bahia while Raquel Lyra took Pernambuco; further north, Hana Ghassan triumphed in Pará and Mailza Assis in Acre. In the southeast, Lucas Ribeiro emerged victorious in Paraíba, expanding the coalition's regional reach.

The Senate races also favoured the coalition. Michelle Bolsonaro topped the list in the Federal District, and Carol de Toni secured first place in Santa Catarina. In Roraima, Nicoletti finished second, while Filipe Barros placed second in Paraná, adding further representation.

Augusto Cury placed third in the Presidential first round, trailing the two candidates who advanced. His showing confirmed the dominance of the two leading contenders and left little room for other challengers.

The coalition now controls the governorships of Bahia, Pernambuco, Pará, Acre and Paraíba. It also holds senate seats in the Federal District, Santa Catarina, Roraima and Paraná. These offices added to the coalition's representation at state and Federal levels.

## Analysis

The runoff pits a former left-leaning president against a member of the Bolsonaro family, creating a clear ideological contest that will dominate the final phase of the election. With no candidate achieving a majority in the first round, voters must now choose between these two distinct visions for Brazil's future.

Control of multiple governorships and several senate seats gives the coalition a substantial foothold in both state and Federal institutions. This expanded presence could facilitate the passage of legislation aligned with the coalition's agenda, while also providing a network of political support for the eventual Presidential winner.

Augusto Cury's third-place finish illustrates the marginal role of smaller candidates in a race dominated by the two runoff qualifiers. The limited vote share for other contenders suggests that any coalition-building efforts will focus primarily on the two leading figures rather than on incorporating minor parties.

While the coalition's recent electoral gains strengthen its position, the ultimate outcome will depend on voter mobilisation and the ability of each runoff candidate to appeal beyond their core bases.

## What this was built from

- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place**: Augusto Cury, 43%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place)
- **Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: Yes, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff)
- **Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election)
- **Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?**: Yes, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff)
- **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: ACM Neto, 57%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)
- **Pernambuco Governor Election Winner**: Raquel Lyra, 60%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/pernambuco-governor-election-winner-20260709143134925)
- **Roraima Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Nicoletti, 46%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/roraima-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place**: Michelle Bolsonaro, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/federal-district-senate-election-1st-place)
- **Paraíba Governor Election Winner**: Lucas Ribeiro, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/paraiba-governor-election-winner-20260611183326566)
- **Acre Governor Election Winner**: Mailza Assis, 76%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/acre-governor-election-winner)
- **Pará Governor Election Winner**: Hana Ghassan, 56%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/para-governor-election-winner-20260609154623298)
- **Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Filipe Barros, 35%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place**: Carol de Toni, 78%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-senate-election-1st-place)