# Cleitinho Azevedo, Eduardo Paes, Ciro Gomes won governorships

*Politics. 60% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Sergio Moro secured Paraná and Fernando Haddad captured São Paulo in elections concluded on Sunday and Monday.**

A series of gubernatorial contests concluded on Sunday and Monday, delivering new governors in five Brazilian states. Cleitinho Azevedo, Eduardo Paes, Ciro Gomes, Sergio Moro and Fernando Haddad each secured the top post in their respective states. The victories spanned Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará, Paraná and São Paulo.

In Minas Gerais, Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos party was declared governor on Sunday. He defeated Mateus Simões, who had been a leading contender. The result finalized the Minas Gerais race on Sunday, 4 October.

Rio de Janeiro Elected Eduardo Paes as governor on Monday. He prevailed over competitors such as Douglas Ruas, Colonel Busnello and Rafa Luz. The Rio contest concluded on 5 October, adding to the Monday tally of new governors.

In Paraná, Sergio Moro won the governorship on Monday, defeating Sandro Alex, Requião Filho and Luiz França. His victory completed the Paraná race on 5 October.

São Paulo also saw a change on Sunday, with Fernando Haddad emerging as governor over Kim Kataguiri. His win closed the São Paulo contest on 4 October. Together, the five victories concluded the 2026 gubernatorial elections for the listed states.

## Analysis

The simultaneous emergence of new governors in five key states could reshape interactions between state administrations and the federal government, especially as each victor brings a distinct political background.

Paes' return to the Rio de Janeiro governorship and Moro's win in Paraná introduce leaders with high national profiles, which might influence policy priorities in areas such as public security and economic reform, though the exact direction remains uncertain.

Gomes in Ceará and Haddad in São Paulo add experienced politicians to the northeast and southeast leadership, respectively; their governing styles could affect regional initiatives, but the impact will depend on how they navigate local coalitions and federal relations.

## What this was built from

- **Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026**: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 82%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236763/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner**: Cleitinho Azevedo, 97%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 86%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **Ceará Governor Election Winner**: Ciro Gomes, 60%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner)
- **Paraná Governor Election Winner**: Sergio Moro, 83%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
- **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Fernando Haddad, 60%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)