# Lula won second term, Bolsonaro runner-up

*World. 51% certain. Sunday, 4 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a second term, while Flávio Bolsonaro placed second.**

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was declared the winner of Brazil's Presidential election on Sunday. The victory gives him a second term in office. Flávio Bolsonaro finished as the runner-up. The result was confirmed by the electoral authority.

In the first round of voting, Flávio Bolsonaro secured second place. He outpaced other contenders such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. The ranking was finalized on Sunday, 4 October.

No alternative candidate was indicated to take the office.

The final results were announced on Sunday, 4 October, after the vote count was completed. The announcement confirmed Lula's presidency and Bolsonaro's second-place finish. The electoral authority reported that the tally was accepted without amendment.

## Analysis

Lula's re-election extends the policies of his previous administrations, meaning that Brazil is likely to continue its current approach to social programs, environmental regulation, and foreign relations. Domestic investors and international partners will interpret the continuity as a signal of policy stability, although any legislative gridlock could still affect implementation.

Flávio Bolsonaro's position as runner-up indicates that a sizable portion of the electorate remains aligned with the Bolsonaro political brand, which may keep right-leaning forces influential in Congress and state governments. This dynamic could shape the legislative agenda, requiring Lula's administration to negotiate with opposition legislators to pass major reforms.

Uncertainty remains around the composition of Brazil's Congress and the ability of the president to forge coalitions. If the legislative branch is fragmented, policy initiatives could face delays or dilution. Additionally, public expectations for change after a second term may create pressure on the administration to deliver tangible results quickly.

## What this was built from

- **Brazil Presidential Election**: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 51%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election)
- **🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027**: Yes, 55%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BrunoParga/-2026-winner-is-lula-or-whoever-he)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place**: Flávio Bolsonaro, 82%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place)