# Cleitinho Azevedo won Minas Gerais governorship

*Politics. 59% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo, and other states chose new leaders.**

State elections concluded on Sunday 4 October and Monday 5 October across Brazil's southeast and northeast. Voters chose new governors in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará and Bahia. The winners were Tarcísio de Freitas, Cleitinho Azevedo, Sergio Moro, Eduardo Paes, Ciro Gomes and Jerônimo Rodrigues.

In Minas Gerais, Republicanos candidate Cleitinho Azevedo secured the governorship. He defeated candidates from PT, PSD and PDT. The result was finalized on Sunday 4 October.

Tarcísio de Freitas won the São Paulo governorship. He prevailed over Kim Kataguiri. The outcome was confirmed on Sunday 4 October.

Sergio Moro emerged victorious in Paraná. He outperformed Sandro Alex and Requião Filho. Eduardo Paes captured the Rio de Janeiro governorship, defeating Douglas Ruas.

Ciro Gomes secured the governorship of Ceará. He won against Elmano de Freitas. Jerônimo Rodrigues was Elected governor of Bahia, defeating ACM Neto. These results were finalized on Sunday 4 October.

## Analysis

The election of six new governors in a single weekend reshapes the political map of Brazil's most populous and economically significant states, potentially altering the balance of power between state and federal authorities.

Cleitinho Azevedo's victory gives the Republicanos party a foothold in Minas Gerais, a state traditionally contested by larger parties, and may boost the party's visibility ahead of national contests.

The wins of Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo, Sergio Moro in Paraná, and Eduardo Paes in Rio de Janeiro concentrate executive control in the hands of figures with prior national prominence, suggesting a possible alignment of state policies with broader political currents.

Ciro Gomes in Ceará and Jerônimo Rodrigues in Bahia add to the diversity of leadership across the northeast, but the policy directions they will pursue remain uncertain, leaving room for negotiation with the newly Elected governors in the south and southeast.

## What this was built from

- **Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner**: Cleitinho Azevedo, 78%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
- **Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026**: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 82%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236763/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Tarcísio de Freitas, 99%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)
- **Paraná Governor Election Winner**: Sergio Moro, 85%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
- **Ceará Governor Election Winner**: Ciro Gomes, 59%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner)
- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 84%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: Jerônimo Rodrigues, 61%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)