# Xavier Becerra elected governor of California

*Politics. 65% certain. Thursday, 31 December 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Kamala Harris chose not to run, and a Billionaire wealth tax was rejected.**

Xavier Becerra was elected governor of California on Tuesday, November 3. Earlier that week, Kamala Harris confirmed she would not seek the governorship. Voters also turned down a proposed one-time Billionaire wealth tax. The Democratic Party kept the CA-38 house seat and Karen Bass became mayor of Los Angeles.

The gubernatorial contest featured Becerra against candidates including Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan and Tom Steyer. On election day, Becerra secured the highest vote total, outpacing his rivals.

The announcement removed her from the list of declared candidates for the November ballot. Her choice left the Democratic field led solely by Becerra.

The Billionaire wealth tax proposal appeared on the November 3 ballot and was rejected by voters. The measure would have imposed a one-time levy on individuals with net worth exceeding a set threshold. Its defeat kept California's tax structure unchanged for high-net-worth individuals.

In the congressional race for California's 38th district, the Democratic nominee retained the seat for the party. The result was confirmed on the same November election that decided the governor's race. On Thursday, December 31, Karen Bass defeated Nithya Raman to become mayor of Los Angeles.

## Analysis

Becerra's win places a former attorney general at the helm of California, likely continuing the state's progressive policy agenda while bringing his own legal background to executive decisions.

Harris's refusal to run eliminates a potential national-profile candidate from the California governor's race, narrowing the field and reinforcing Becerra's position as the clear Democratic front-runner.

The rejection of the Billionaire wealth tax signals voter resistance to sweeping fiscal measures targeting high-net-worth individuals, suggesting that future attempts may need to be restructured or framed differently to gain support.

Retaining the CA-38 house seat and electing Karen Bass as Los Angeles mayor preserve Democratic control in both federal and municipal arenas, reinforcing the party's influence in key California constituencies.

## What this was built from

- **California Governor Election Winner**: Xavier Becerra, 92%; settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (polymarket, futuur). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026)
- **Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?**: No, 99%; settles Friday, 6 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-kamala-harris-run-for-governor)
- **Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?**: No, 73%; settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026)
- **CA-38 House Election Winner**: Democratic Party, 88%; settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ca-38-house-election-winner)
- **Los Angeles Mayoral Election**: Karen Bass, 65%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117)