# Susan Lahey won York, Simcoe Provincial by-election

*Politics. 57% certain. Thursday, 3 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Fatima Shaban secured Scarborough Southwest while Jeff Beattie took Hamilton East, Stoney Creek.**

Three Provincial by-elections were held on Thursday, 3 September 2026. Voters in York, Simcoe, Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East, Stoney Creek each chose a new representative. Susan Lahey won in York, Simcoe, Fatima Shaban in Scarborough Southwest, and Jeff Beattie in Hamilton East, Stoney Creek.

In York, Simcoe, Susan Lahey emerged victorious. She prevailed over the other candidates on the ballot.

Fatima Shaban claimed the seat in Scarborough Southwest. Her campaign outperformed the remaining contenders. She now represents the riding in the Provincial assembly.

Jeff Beattie secured the Hamilton East, Stoney Creek constituency. He defeated the other hopefuls contesting the by-election. His election adds him to the province's legislative body.

## Analysis

The three victories introduce new members to the Provincial legislature, which could alter the numerical balance of parties depending on each winner's affiliation. Without knowing the party alignment of Lahey, Shaban and Beattie, the precise effect on legislative dynamics remains uncertain.

Each winner now carries the interests of a distinct region: York, Simcoe, Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East, Stoney Creek. Their presence may shift attention to local issues within the broader Provincial agenda, influencing policy discussions that affect those areas.

By-elections often serve as a snapshot of voter sentiment in specific ridings. While these results suggest a preference for the elected candidates, interpreting broader political trends will require additional data on turnout, party support and subsequent legislative activity.

## What this was built from

- **Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner**: Fatima Shaban, 91%; settles Thursday, 3 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/scarborough-southwest-provincial-by-election-winner-1785955561142)
- **Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner**: Jeff Beattie, 57%; settles Thursday, 3 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/hamilton-eaststoney-creek-provincial-by-election-winner-1785955561114)
- **York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner**: Susan Lahey, 99%; settles Thursday, 3 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/yorksimcoe-provincial-by-election-winner-1785955561170)