# Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates as Korea held policy

*Economics. 72% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Bank of Korea left its rate unchanged and a poll on 27 October favored no further hikes.**

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of Korea left its policy unchanged on Thursday. A poll on Tuesday showed no further hikes were favored.

The New Zealand increase was announced on 28 October. The Korean decision, made on 22 October, was a hold rather than a cut. The poll, conducted on 27 October, indicated a preference for maintaining the current rate.

The three events unfolded within a six-day span, reflecting differing monetary policy stances in the region.

The poll result on 27 October recorded a preference for no additional hikes. That preference mirrored the Bank of Korea's unchanged policy on 22 October. It stood in contrast to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 25-basis-point rise on 28 October.

## Analysis

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to tighten by 25 basis points signals a view that inflationary pressures remain sufficiently strong to warrant higher borrowing costs, potentially slowing domestic demand and influencing the currency's strength.

Together, the divergent moves illustrate how central banks in the Asia-Pacific region are calibrating policy to their specific economic environments. New Zealand's tightening may affect trade and capital flows with neighboring economies, while Korea's pause could keep financing conditions stable for domestic borrowers. Future policy paths will depend on incoming data on price stability and growth, leaving some uncertainty about whether either central Bank will adjust rates again in the near term.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Bank of Korea October Rate Decision: Why a 3% Hold May Precede a November Hike | EBC Financial Group](https://www.ebc.com/forex/bank-of-korea-october-2026-rate-decision)
- [Experts see Bank of Korea holding in October, hiking in November - CHOSUNBIZ](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2026/10/20/HRSIFBCSW5GQFALNV6NMBK4U2Y/)
- [Korea Seen Holding Rate in October, Raising It in November - Seoul Economic Daily](https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/19/korea-seen-holding-rate-in-october-raising-it-in-november)
- [Bank of Korea](https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/main/main.do)

## What this was built from

- **Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?**: 25 bps increase, 72%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-october-20260729164521631)
- **Bank of Korea decision in October?**: No Change, 99%; settles Thursday, 22 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-korea-decision-in-october)
- **No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?**: No change, 97%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-or-hike-25-bps-favored-on-october-27)