# Opensea, Puffpaw, Metamask and Extended missed first-day valuations

*Science. 56% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Metamask fell short of a $2 billion target and Extended missed an $800 million goal.**

On Friday the launch day for several high-profile crypto platforms, none achieved their projected fully diluted valuations. Metamask, Extended, Puffpaw and Opensea all fell short of the targets set for the first 24 hours. The shortfalls were confirmed on Friday.

Metamask's projected FDV was $2 billion for its first day. On Friday the actual FDV was below that figure. The launch therefore did not meet the $2 billion benchmark.

Extended aimed for an $800 million FDV after one day. The Friday assessment showed the valuation remained under that level. The target was not reached.

Puffpaw sought a $200 million FDV and Opensea a $100 million FDV within the first day. Both platforms were evaluated on Friday and each stayed below its respective goal. Neither platform achieved the projected valuation.

All four projects reported FDVs under their announced thresholds on the same day.

## Analysis

Missing the first-day FDV targets suggests that investor demand was lower than the ambitious figures announced by the projects.

For the projects themselves, the shortfall may affect subsequent fundraising rounds, partnership negotiations, and roadmap planning.

Uncertainty remains about whether the platforms will recover their valuations as they develop and attract users.

## What this was built from

- **Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 92%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?**: No, 83%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?**: No, 84%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?**: No, 73%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?**: No, 86%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?**: No, 56%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?**: No, 77%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?**: No, 88%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?**: Yes, 76%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)