# Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September

*Economics. 51% certain. Thursday, 8 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The central bank increased its policy rate and signaled no cuts were imminent.**

On September 16, the Federal Reserve lifted its target interest rate by 25 basis points. The board also said it did not expect to lower rates in the near term. The move diverged from earlier expectations of a pause.

The June through September policy actions did not follow a simple pause-pause-pause pattern. Instead, the September increase represented a shift in the sequence of decisions. The earlier months featured a mix of adjustments.

The Fed confirmed that it would not cut rates at the September meeting. This ruling out of a reduction aligned with the decision to raise the rate. No decrease was implemented.

At its subsequent meeting on September 23, the board again indicated that a cut of at least 25 basis points would not occur. The statement reinforced the stance taken in September. No easing was announced.

Overall, the policy stance pointed toward continued tightening rather than easing. The central bank left the path open for further increases if conditions warranted. Immediate rate reductions were excluded.

## Analysis

The rate hike suggests the Fed judged inflationary pressures to remain too strong for monetary easing. By adding 25 basis points, the board aimed to reinforce price stability.

Higher policy rates translate into increased borrowing costs for households and firms. Mortgage, auto and business loan rates are likely to rise, which can dampen consumer spending and investment. The tightening may therefore temper economic growth.

These dynamics can affect portfolio allocations.

Future policy will depend on incoming data on inflation and employment. With cuts ruled out for the next two meetings, the Fed retains the option to raise rates further if risks persist. However, any deviation will hinge on how the economy evolves.

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in September?**: 25 bps increase, 51%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762)
- **Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)**: Other, 51%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-jun-sep)
- **Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?**: No, 54%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MAKER/-will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates)
- **Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-at-least)
- **Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?**: No, 98%; settles Wednesday, 23 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/subhamsingh/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-25-bps-at-N6AnPp8uC8)