# Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.25 percent

*Economics. 62% certain. Friday, 29 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Fed raised rates twice by 25 bps, left the target at 4.25%, and kept Jerome Powell on the Board through year-end.**

The Federal Reserve raised its target rate twice by 25 basis points in 2026 and left the rate unchanged at 4.25 percent by year-end. The central bank avoided any rate cuts throughout the year. A decision in the January 2027 meeting kept the policy rate steady.

The first of the 2026 hikes added 25 basis points to the target, and a second 25-basis-point increase was announced in December. Both adjustments together brought the policy rate to 4.25 percent, the upper bound the Fed reached before 2027. The December decision was a 25-basis-point increase.

In the September meeting the Fed implemented a rate hike, followed by a pause in October, and then a further hike in December. This sequence matches the hike, pause, hike pattern recorded for the September-December quarter. The October meeting did not result in a cut.

Throughout 2026 the Fed recorded zero rate cuts, confirming that no reduction was made at any meeting. The October meeting specifically did not feature a cut. The overall count of cuts for the year remained at zero.

Jerome Powell stayed on the Federal Reserve Board through the end of 2026, as his departure by December 31 did not occur. The January 2027 meeting concluded with no change to the target rate. The policy rate therefore remained at 4.25 percent entering 2027.

## Analysis

The higher cost of credit is likely to dampen consumption and investment, which can slow economic expansion but also help contain price pressures.

The pause suggests the Board was waiting for evidence that earlier tightening was taking effect, while the subsequent hike indicates that conditions still warranted a tighter stance.

By avoiding reductions, the Fed maintained a consistent message, which can anchor expectations but also risks over-tightening if growth weakens.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
- [What’s The Fed’s Next Move? | J.P. Morgan Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)
- [Traders now see little chance of a Fed rate hike in October after weak jobs report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html)
- [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
- [Jerome Powell - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell)
- [DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/doj-says-it-will-not-reopen-criminal-probe-into-former-fed-chair-powell.html)

## What this was built from

- **How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?**: 0 (0 bps), 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)
- **Fed Decision in December?**: 25 bps increase, 76%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632)
- **What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?**: 4.25%, 70%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026)
- **Another Fed rate hike in 2026?**: Yes, 80%; settles Thursday, 10 December 2026 (polymarket, manifold). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026)
- **How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?**: 2 (50 bps), 67%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369)
- **Fed Decision in January?**: No change, 62%; settles Thursday, 28 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502)
- **Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 29 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)**: Hike–Pause–Hike, 68%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec)
- **Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?**: No, 100%; settles Friday, 29 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?**: Yes, 85%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027)
- **Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?**: No, 91%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by)