# Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election *Politics. 35% certain. Thursday, 1 July 2027* > Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened. **Laurent Wauquiez was not on the ballot.** > **Revised Sunday, 11 October 2026.** The earlier report that Jean‑Luc Mélenchon won the French presidential election has been corrected; Marine Le Pen is now recorded as the winner. Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election. The victory was announced after the final count was completed. The outcome determined the next head of state for France. Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the ballot. His exclusion meant the right-wing field lacked his candidacy. The ballot therefore featured other contenders. Mathilde Panot did not announce a candidacy in 2026. Her decision removed a potential left-wing contender from the race. The list of candidates reflected this omission. Jordan Bardella failed to reach the second round. The runoff proceeded without his participation. The second-round lineup consisted of other candidates. The final tally confirmed Le Pen's victory. The conclusion closed the 2027 Presidential contest. ## Analysis Her prior leadership of the National Rally suggests a continuation of nationalist rhetoric, which could affect France's relationships with EU partners and its domestic policy agenda. However, the precise direction of policy will depend on coalition dynamics within the parliament and the president's ability to work with opposition parties. The absence of Laurent Wauquiez from the ballot removed a prominent figure from the conservative spectrum, possibly consolidating right-wing voters behind Le Pen or dispersing them among smaller candidates. Without Wauquiez's platform of fiscal restraint and decentralisation, the political debate may have been less focused on those issues, giving Le Pen greater room to shape the campaign narrative. Jordan Bardella's failure to reach the second round eliminates a younger, more hard-line voice from the final contest, potentially reducing the pressure on Le Pen to adopt even more extreme positions to capture his supporters. Mathilde Panot's decision not to run removed a left-wing alternative that might have drawn votes away from traditional socialist candidates, consolidating the left vote behind fewer figures. ### Background consulted for the analysis - [2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election) - [Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election) - [2027 French presidential election — Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/2027_French_presidential_election) - [2027 French presidential election - World news, culture and opinion](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/2027-french-presidential-election/) ## What this was built from - **Next French Presidential Election**: Marine Le Pen, 35%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election) - **Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 71%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 91%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 66%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: No, 95%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round) - **Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 94%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 97%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-run-in-2026) - **Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 79%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 80%; settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot) - **Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: No, 60%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round) - **Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: Yes, 91%; settles Monday, 19 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round) - **Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 90%; settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)