# Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election

*Politics. 29% certain. Friday, 30 April 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Marine Le Pen advanced to the runoff and Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the ballot.**

Édouard Philippe was declared the winner of the 2027 French Presidential election. His victory ended a runoff contest between the two leading candidates.

Marine Le Pen secured a place in the second round of the election. This development was logged on Friday 30 April. She joined Édouard Philippe as the final contenders.

Jordan Bardella failed to qualify for the second round. The determination was entered on Friday 30 April. His exclusion left only Philippe and Le Pen for the runoff. The first-round field therefore narrowed significantly.

Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the Presidential ballot. His name did not appear among the listed candidates. The final list of candidates proceeded without him.

The election timeline moved from the final candidate list on 17 April to first-round results on 30 April and culminated in the runoff result on 1 April. Balloting took place between those dates under the established schedule. The process concluded with Philippe's victory.

## Analysis

Philippe's victory gives the centrist government a mandate to pursue its agenda, but it will need to navigate a fragmented parliament where coalition building may prove necessary.

Le Pen's advance to the runoff demonstrates the continued appeal of far-right ideas among a segment of voters, raising questions about how mainstream parties will address issues such as immigration and national identity. Her presence in the second round may influence the policy positions of other contenders as they seek to win over her supporters.

How the remaining parties reorganize around these changes could affect future electoral contests and the balance of power within the opposition.

## What this was built from

- **Winner of France’s presidential election**: Édouard Philippe, 29%; settles Thursday, 1 April 2027 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/237493/winner-of-frances-presidential-election)
- **Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: Yes, 87%; settles Friday, 30 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round)
- **Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?**: No, 91%; settles Friday, 30 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round)
- **Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 87%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 88%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 97%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 88%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 88%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 67%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: Yes, 56%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 94%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 90%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 73%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 71%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 74%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?**: No, 94%; settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)
- **Next French Presidential Election**: Marine Le Pen, 32%; settles Friday, 30 April 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election)