# Pam Alexis, Łukasz Gibała and Fabio Roscioli win local elections

*Politics. 54% certain. Monday, 28 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Alexis captured Abbotsford-Mission, Gibała took Kraków, and Roscioli secured Reggio di Calabria.**

On Monday, 28 September, Fabio Roscioli was declared the winner of the Reggio di Calabria By-election. The result followed a contest that had listed Frank Benedetto and Francesco Toscano among the runners-up. In the same weekend, Łukasz Gibała secured the mayoralty of Kraków on Sunday, 27 September, defeating Monika Piątkowska, Michał Drewnicki and Grażyna Zofia Świat. The series of outcomes also included Pam Alexis winning the Abbotsford-Mission by-election on Saturday, 26 September, over Kerry-Lynne Findlay and Lakhwinder Jhaj.

The Reggio di Calabria contest was a by-election triggered by a vacancy in the seat. Voters chose Roscioli over the two main challengers, Frank Benedetto and Francesco Toscano.

Kraków's Mayoral race concluded on Sunday with Gibała emerging ahead of a field that included Monika Piątkowska, Michał Drewnicki and Grażyna Zofia Świat. The city's electoral commission released the certified count shortly after polls closed. Gibała's victory positioned him to assume the municipal leadership of the historic Polish city.

In Canada, the Abbotsford-Mission riding held its by-election on Saturday, 26 September. Pam Alexis secured the seat, surpassing both Kerry-Lynne Findlay and Lakhwinder Jhaj. The provincial election authority announced the result on the same day, confirming Alexis as the new representative.

## Analysis

In Reggio di Calabria, the incoming representative may affect the balance of voices in the national parliament, while Kraków's new mayor is positioned to steer urban development and municipal services. Similarly, the Abbotsford-Mission seat adds a fresh perspective to the provincial legislative body, which could alter voting dynamics on provincial matters.

Without detailed information on those factors, the extent to which each victory will shift legislative outcomes remains uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner**: Pam Alexis, 54%; settles Saturday, 26 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/abbotsford-mission-by-election-winner)
- **Kraków Mayoral Election Winner**: Łukasz Gibała, 74%; settles Sunday, 27 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/krakow-mayoral-election-winner-20260807003532273)
- **Reggio di Calabria By-Election Winner**: Fabio Roscioli, 80%; settles Monday, 28 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/reggio-di-calabria-by-election-winner)