# Iranian regime remained in power as September ended

*World. 90% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The regime stayed intact and Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control.**

On September 30, the Iranian regime remained in power. Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control. The United States kept its blockade in place.

The government's institutions continued to function without interruption. Authority over Kharg Island was maintained without any reported contest. The naval blockade imposed by the United States persisted throughout September.

No announcement indicated a change in the regime's status. No report showed Kharg Island falling out of Iranian hands. No statement signaled an end to the U.S. blockade.

These three conditions held steady into the first day of October. The unchanged situation reflected continuity across political and territorial dimensions. The status quo remained as the month closed.

## Analysis

The continuation of the Iranian regime signals political stability within the country, meaning that existing leadership and policy directions persisted through September. This stability limits the scope for sudden internal reforms or power shifts, but external pressures could still influence future decisions.

Retaining control of Kharg Island keeps Iran in possession of a key oil export terminal, preserving its ability to move petroleum products once external constraints ease. The Island's status, however, remains subject to the operational impact of the ongoing U.S. blockade, which restricts maritime traffic to the facility.

The United States' decision not to lift the blockade maintains economic pressure on Iran, constraining its shipping and trade channels. The blockade's persistence suggests that diplomatic negotiations have not produced an agreement, leaving the timing of any future change uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?**: No, 90%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)