# Iran kept Hormuz airspace open

*World. 90% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**It also refused to charge passage fees and did not sign a US-Iran agreement by September 30.**

By the end of September 2026 Iran kept the airspace over the Hormuz Strait open. It did not impose any passage fees on vessels navigating the waterway. No agreement between Iran and the United States concerning Hormuz was signed.

The deadline had been set for the end of the month to determine whether fees or closures would be enacted. The confirmation came as regional authorities reviewed the status of the strait.

The open airspace meant that no comprehensive aviation ban was imposed. The decision not to levy fees kept shipping charges at existing levels. The absence of a signed agreement left diplomatic terms unchanged.

As of the September 30 cutoff, Iran maintained the status quo across all three dimensions. No closure, no fee, and no new agreement were in effect at the close of the month. The situation remained unchanged into early October.

## Analysis

Keeping the Hormuz airspace open preserves the ability of commercial and military aircraft to transit the region without the disruption that a blanket closure would cause. For shipping firms, the lack of new passage fees means that transit costs remain at pre-deadline levels, which can temper any immediate upward pressure on freight rates for oil and other cargoes that rely on the strait.

The failure to sign a US-Iran agreement leaves diplomatic negotiations in a stalled state. Without a formal pact, both sides lack a framework for coordinated security or fee arrangements, which could limit the scope for future cooperation on navigation safety or revenue sharing. Stakeholders in regional economies therefore continue to operate under existing, uncertain diplomatic conditions.

Future developments remain uncertain. Iran could still choose to introduce fees or restrict airspace later in the year, and the United States might pursue alternative diplomatic channels or pressure mechanisms. The current status therefore represents a temporary equilibrium rather than a permanent resolution, and the direction of any subsequent policy shift will depend on broader geopolitical dynamics.

## What this was built from

- **Iran full airspace closure by September 30?**: No, 95%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 90%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)