# Iran took no aggressive steps in Hormuz corridor

*World. 93% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Iran left the Strait open, kept its airspace unrestricted, did not charge transit fees and did not sign a Hormuz agreement with Oman.**

On Thursday, Iran confirmed that it had taken no aggressive steps in the Hormuz corridor. The country neither imposed transit fees nor closed its airspace. It also refrained from signing a bilateral Hormuz agreement with Oman.

The possibility of new Hormuz fees had been monitored throughout September. By the end of the month, the government announced that no such charges would be levied.

Similarly, reports of a full airspace closure were examined as the deadline approached. No closure was enacted, and commercial flights continued to operate over the Strait. The status was confirmed on Thursday.

Talks with Oman on a Hormuz agreement had been discussed in regional circles. No agreement was finalized by the September 30 cutoff. The absence of a pact was logged on October 1.

## Analysis

The decision not to impose fees, close airspace, or formalise a new agreement leaves the Hormuz Strait operating under existing conditions. Shipping companies can continue to transit the waterway without added costs or routing changes, which helps maintain the flow of oil and other commodities that pass through the narrow passage.

For regional powers, the lack of a new Iran-Oman arrangement means that diplomatic leverage in the corridor remains unchanged. The United States and its allies had been watching for signs of increased Iranian pressure; the absence of such moves reduces immediate tension but does not eliminate underlying strategic concerns.

Future developments remain uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **Iran full airspace closure by September 30?**: No, 94%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)