# Iranian regime remained in power through 2026

*World. 83% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States did not acquire Iran's enriched uranium by year-end.**

The United States also reported that it had not obtained any Iranian enriched uranium by the end of the year. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to face disruptions, with traffic still below pre-conflict levels. Hamas rejected calls to disarm, maintaining its armed posture.

Domestic security forces continued their usual operations across the country.

The U.S. intelligence community stated that attempts to secure Iranian enriched uranium had not succeeded. No shipments or covert transfers were reported up to December 31. The failure limited Washington's leverage in ongoing non-proliferation negotiations.

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal levels on Friday. Vessels reported delays and rerouting due to lingering security concerns. The continued bottleneck affected regional oil shipments and insurance premiums.

Hamas publicly refused to disarm as of Friday. Negotiators found no agreement on weapons surrender. The group's continued armament sustained tensions in the Gaza-Israel frontier.

## Analysis

The persistence of Iran's regime eliminates the prospect of a rapid political shift that some regional actors had anticipated. Without a collapse, existing power balances and Tehran's foreign policy agenda are likely to continue, shaping diplomatic calculations across the Middle East.

Washington's inability to secure enriched uranium curtails a potential bargaining chip in non-proliferation talks. The shortfall may force the United States to rely more heavily on sanctions and diplomatic pressure, while also limiting direct insight into Iran's nuclear materials.

Simultaneously, Hamas's refusal to disarm sustains a volatile security environment on the Gaza-Israel front, complicating cease-fire efforts and regional stability.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Iran Regime Collapse: Israeli Intelligence Predicts 2027 | JFeed](https://www.jfeed.com/middleeast/iran-regime-collapse-intelligence)
- [Iran Regime Collapse: Mossad's 2027 Assessment Explained | JFeed](https://www.jfeed.com/middleeast/iran-regime-collapse-mossad-assessment)
- [Netanyahu UN Speech to Forecast Fall of Iranian Regime | Israel Hayom](https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/23/netanyahu-un-speech-iran-regime-fall-timeline/)
- [Iran Regime Collapse: Trump and Netanyahu Predictions | JFeed](https://www.jfeed.com/middleeast/iran-regime-collapse-predictions)

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026)
- **US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 83%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)
- **Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?**: No, 87%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31)