# Iranian regime stayed intact on Sunday

*World. 97% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Kharg Island stayed under Tehran's control and the regime remained intact.**

The Iranian regime stayed intact on Sunday, 1 November. Kharg Island remained under Tehran's control on the same day. No International Atomic Energy Agency teams visited Isfahan, Fordow or Natanz by the end of October. Mojtaba Khamenei was not seen in public by the end of October.

The question of a regime collapse was answered negatively on Sunday. Authorities continued to exercise governmental functions throughout the week. No reports indicated any change in leadership or power structures.

Reports confirmed that Kharg Island stayed under Iranian authority on Sunday. Control of the strategic oil terminal was not challenged during the period.

The International Atomic Energy Agency did not conduct inspections at Isfahan, Fordow or Natanz by the end of October. No inspection teams arrived at any of the three nuclear sites during the month. The agency's schedule remained unchanged through the reporting period.

Mojtaba Khamenei was not observed in any public setting by the end of October. No media footage or photographs showed him appearing in public events. His public absence was noted throughout the final weeks of October.

## Analysis

The confirmation that the Iranian regime remained in power means that the existing political and security structures continue to operate without interruption. This stability preserves the current policy direction and limits immediate internal power shifts, though it does not preclude future challenges that could arise from economic or social pressures.

The absence of any contest over the Island suggests that external actors have not altered the status quo, but the situation remains subject to broader geopolitical dynamics.

The lack of IAEA inspections at the three nuclear sites and the public invisibility of Mojtaba Khamenei together signal limited diplomatic engagement and internal political opacity. While the regime's durability is evident, the continued suspension of inspections sustains uncertainty about nuclear compliance, and the leader's absence may affect perceptions of succession planning within the ruling establishment.

## What this was built from

- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?**: No, 100%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-october-31)
- **Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by)
- **IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014)