# Iran's regime stayed under Mojtaba Khamenei as US avoided war

*World. 57% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**No nuclear breakthrough occurred and no leadership change materialized.**

In 2026 the United States did not declare war on Iran and it never launched an invasion. The Iranian political system remained intact, with no fall of the regime. Mojtaba Khamenei continued as the country's leader through the end of the year.

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran ended before November 30, ending the brief lull in hostilities. The United States never imposed a full closure of Iranian airspace. Hostilities did not escalate to a formal war declaration or a full-scale invasion.

Iran did not acquire nuclear weapons during the year. It neither surrendered its enriched Uranium stockpile nor agreed to end enrichment activities. The country also remained a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and did not withdraw. No final nuclear deal or enrichment-percentage Cap was reached with the United States.

The exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi neither assumed leadership nor entered Iranian territory during the year. No change in Iran's top leadership occurred, and the regime's structure stayed the same. The anticipated shift in power failed to materialize despite speculation.

By December 31, Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's Head of state. The regime's continuity meant that the political status quo persisted throughout 2026. No leadership transition took place at any time in the year.

## Analysis

The persistence of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership signals that internal power structures in Tehran remained stable, limiting the scope for rapid policy shifts. Domestic factions that might have sought reform or regime change found no opening, which could reinforce the current conservative agenda and affect civil-society dynamics.

Iran's nuclear program stayed on its pre-existing trajectory: no weapons were produced, no enriched Uranium was handed over, and the country stayed within the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty framework. The lack of a final deal or enrichment Cap means that diplomatic leverage on Tehran's nuclear activities remained limited, and non-proliferation concerns persist without new verification mechanisms.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2026 Iran war - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war)
- [2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war)
- [U.S. Conflict with Iran | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48887)
- [Conflict With Iran | Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran)
- [Iran judiciary could block government appointments, says President Pezeshkian](https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-judiciary-could-block-government-appointments-says-president-pezeshkian/)
- [Timeline of the nuclear program of Iran - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_nuclear_program_of_Iran)

## What this was built from

- **Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?**: No, 84%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027)
- **Iran leader end of 2026?**: Mojtaba Khamenei, 91%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026)
- **Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026)
- **Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Plant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026)
- **Iran leadership change by December 31?**: No, 90%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?**: No, 86%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412)
- **Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30)
- **Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by)
- ** Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?**: No, 89%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31)
- **Iran Nuke before 2027?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027)
- **Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by)
- **US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?**: No, 57%; settles Monday, 30 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?**: No, 90%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027)
- **Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?**: No, 85%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026-20260624150226501)
- **Iran full airspace closure by December 31?**: No, 72%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028)