# Iranian regime remained in power as US blockade persisted

*World. 69% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Strait traffic stayed disrupted and US did not obtain Iranian enriched uranium.**

The Iranian regime stayed in power, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz failed to return to normal levels. The United States neither announced an end to its blockade nor secured Iranian enriched uranium. These results indicated only a minimal easing of the broader geopolitical strain.

The regime's continuity was affirmed after a review of political developments through the end of 2026. No event triggered a change in leadership before the start of 2027.

Shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz remained below pre-conflict averages throughout 2026. Surveys of vessel movements showed no return to normal traffic by the year's end. The persistent disruption continued to affect regional oil flows.

The United States kept its maritime restrictions in place through October 2026. No declaration was made to lift the blockade on Iranian shipping. The policy persisted despite diplomatic overtures elsewhere.

Efforts to acquire Iranian enriched uranium did not succeed by 31 December 2026. No transfer of material was recorded during that period. The United States therefore entered 2027 without the sought-after uranium stockpile.

## Analysis

The persistence of the Iranian regime means internal power dynamics remain unchanged, limiting any shift in Tehran's foreign policy. Without a regime change, the drivers of regional tension stay in place, making diplomatic breakthroughs harder.

The continued suppression of Strait of Hormuz traffic, coupled with the unchanged US blockade, sustains a bottleneck for global oil shipments.

The outcome suggests that diplomatic pathways will need to rely on other mechanisms rather than material exchange.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 79%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 69%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by)