# Iranian regime remained in power through September

*Politics. 94% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The regime stayed intact, Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control, and the U.S. did not end the blockade by the end of September.**

The same report noted that Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control through that date. It also recorded that the United States had not announced an end to the Iranian blockade by the end of September.

The regime's survival was evident as no collapse or transfer of power was reported during September. Domestic institutions and leadership structures remained operational throughout the month.

Kharg Island, a strategic oil export hub, remained in Iranian hands for the entire month of September. Shipping and security arrangements on the Island continued under Tehran's authority. No seizure or handover was recorded by the end of the period.

The United States did not issue a statement ending the blockade by September 30, meaning the maritime restrictions persisted. American policy remarks during the month maintained the status quo of the blockade. The lack of an announcement signaled that the blockade remained in effect through the end of September.

## Analysis

The confirmed continuation of the Iranian regime through September indicates that internal political structures have held together despite external pressure. This stability reduces the likelihood of sudden regime change in the near term and sustains Tehran's capacity to direct domestic and foreign policy.

Kharg Island's retention under Iranian control preserves a key node for oil exports, allowing the country to maintain a portion of its revenue stream despite sanctions.

The United States' failure to announce an end to the blockade signals that the maritime restriction remained in place at least through September. This continuation keeps pressure on Iran's shipping routes, potentially affecting global oil prices and maintaining tension in the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving open the possibility of future diplomatic shifts.

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)