# Iranian regime remained in power on September 30

*World. 97% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control and senior cleric Mojtaba Khamenei was not seen publicly by month's end.**

On 30 September the Iranian regime remained in power. Kharg Island remained under Iranian control on that date. Mojtaba Khamenei was not seen in public by the end of September.

The assessment of these conditions was released on Thursday, 1 October. The release covered the status of the regime, the Island and the senior figure through 30 September. It confirmed that the situation had not changed during that period.

The report indicated that Iran continued to administer the oil facilities on Kharg Island. No transfer of authority was recorded up to 30 September.

No images or statements from him were logged during the month. His public profile remained unchanged through the reporting period.

## Analysis

The confirmation that the Iranian regime stayed in power suggests that the internal political structure persisted through September, leaving the country's governance framework unchanged.

Retention of Kharg Island under Iranian control means that the nation kept authority over a key oil export hub, preserving its existing regional energy posture.

Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from public view indicates that no visible shift occurred in the senior cleric's public engagement, leaving questions about his role within the leadership unanswered.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by)