# Israel struck four countries while Iran-Israel ceasefire persisted

*World. 78% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israel struck four nations in 2026 and the Iran-Israel ceasefire held through October 31.**

Israel carried out military strikes in four different countries during 2026. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained in force through October 31. Iran did not impose passage fees on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by that date.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire persisted without interruption until the end of October. No direct hostilities between the two states were recorded during that period. The sustained pause covered the months leading up to the year's final quarter.

Israeli operations targeted locations across four distinct nations. The total number of countries involved reached four by the close of the year.

Iran chose not to levy Hormuz transit fees through October 31. Shipping costs for vessels passing the strait remained unchanged. No fee schedule was announced before the end of the month.

## Analysis

Conducting strikes in four separate states while a ceasefire with Iran held shows Israel's capacity to engage on multiple fronts without opening a second theater with Tehran. This separation may reflect strategic calculations to limit direct confrontation with Iran while still addressing other security concerns.

The continuation of the Israel-Iran ceasefire through October likely contributed to a period of relative stability in the region, reducing the risk of broader escalation. Maintaining the pause may have allowed diplomatic channels to remain open and provided a buffer for neighboring states.

Iran's decision not to impose Hormuz fees avoided adding economic pressure on international shipping, which could have compounded regional tensions.

## What this was built from

- **How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?**: 4, 78%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026)
- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 80%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?**: No, 88%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)