# Hezbollah and Hamas remained armed as Netanyahu stayed in office

*World. 63% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**No major regime change occurred in the region in 2026.**

Expectations of sweeping regime change in the Middle East and North Africa in 2026 proved unfounded. On Friday it was confirmed that Hezbollah had not disarmed by the end of the year. Hamas also failed to agree to disarm by the same deadline. Additionally Prime Minister Netanyahu remained in office through the close of 2026.

Hezbollah continued to hold its arsenal after the deadline passed. The organization cited security concerns as justification for retaining weapons. Its decision maintained the status quo in Lebanon's political-military balance.

Hamas also refrained from any disarmament agreement before the year ended. The group argued that its armed wing remained essential for its negotiating position. The refusal kept Gaza's militant infrastructure intact.

Benjamin Netanyahu completed the 2026 term without interruption. His continued leadership avoided the anticipated leadership turnover. The stability of his government extended Israel's existing policy direction.

## Analysis

Their continued presence reinforces existing power structures and limits the opening for new political forces. As a result, the status quo persisted into 2027.

The failure of Hezbollah and Hamas to disarm sustains the militarized environment that underpins many of the conflicts in the area. Without a reduction in armed capabilities, cease-fire negotiations and peace initiatives face higher hurdles. The armed groups retain leverage in any diplomatic talks, which may deter compromise. Consequently, the risk of renewed violence stays elevated.

Netanyahu's retention of power eliminates the expected shift in Israeli leadership that could have altered regional policy. Continuity in Israel's government means that its current diplomatic and security approaches are likely to continue. External actors seeking to engage the region must work within the same political framework as before. Uncertainty therefore remains about when, if ever, substantive change might occur.

## What this was built from

- **Netanyahu out by end of 2026?**: No, 63%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027)
- **Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?**: No, 92%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31)
- **Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?**: No, 89%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31)