# Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted as Iran kept power

*World. 89% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Traffic remained hampered and Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control through September.**

Throughout September, commercial vessels continued to face delays and rerouting in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian government retained authority over the waterway, and the regime showed no signs of collapse. Meanwhile, strategic islands such as Kharg remained firmly under Tehran's control.

Shipping data confirmed that traffic had not returned to pre-disruption levels by September 30. The United States did not issue any statement ending the Iranian blockade during that period. The continued restrictions preserved the heightened risk profile for maritime operators.

The ruling establishment in Iran persisted without change through the month. Senior figure Mojtaba Khamenei was not observed in any public setting before the end of September.

No reports indicated any transfer of authority over the Island or other nearby outposts. Control of these positions remained a cornerstone of Tehran's regional posture.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical chokepoint, remained operational through September. It was not effectively closed, allowing vessels to transit between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The situation contrasted with the sustained disruption in the Hormuz corridor.

## Analysis

The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept a key artery for global oil shipments constrained, likely elevating freight rates and prompting shippers to seek alternative routes. Persistent congestion can also amplify insurance premiums and affect refining margins worldwide, reinforcing the strategic leverage of the region's actors.

The fact that the Iranian regime remained in power and that a prominent family member was absent from public view suggests internal stability rather than imminent political turnover. Continuity in leadership reduces the probability of abrupt policy shifts that could alter the regional security calculus.

Retention of Kharg Island by Iranian forces preserves Tehran's control over a vital oil-export node, enhancing its ability to influence export volumes and pricing. The Island's status also provides a forward base for monitoring maritime traffic, reinforcing Iran's negotiating position in any future diplomatic engagements.

With the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remaining open, global trade retains an alternative passage between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, mitigating some of the pressure from Hormuz disruptions. The United States' decision not to announce an end to the blockade signals that diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Hormuz situation had not reached a decisive resolution by the end of September.

## What this was built from

- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?**: No, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-yU9NASst0n)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-CN0zOzRqE8)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by)