# Morena won federal Legislative election and all contested state congresses

*Politics. 26% certain. Monday, 7 June 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The party also led the Legislative vote with PVEM finishing as runner-up.**

Morena secured a decisive victory in the federal Legislative election, outpacing its nearest rival. The party also captured every contested state Congress in the state of Mexico, Oaxaca and Baja California. The results delivered a sweeping triumph across multiple levels of government.

In the Chamber of Deputies race, Morena emerged as the winner while the Green Ecologist Party (PVEM) took second place. The National Action Party, the Citizens' Movement and the Labor Party did not finish ahead of those two parties. The ranking left Morena at the top of the Legislative vote.

Morena won the state of Mexico's congressional election, defeating the Green Ecologist Party, the Citizens' Movement and the National Action Party. The result gave the party control of the state legislature. The outcome removed the opposition parties from the top spots in that chamber.

In Oaxaca, Morena secured the congressional election, surpassing the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the Green Ecologist Party and the Citizens' Movement. The victory handed Morena a majority in the state's Legislative body. The opposition parties were left without a leading position.

Morena also captured the Baja California congressional election, beating the Green Ecologist Party, the Citizens' Movement and the National Action Party. The win extended the party's Legislative reach to the northwest region. The result placed Morena at the head of that state's Congress

## Analysis

Morena's control of the lower house gives the ruling coalition a strong platform to advance its Legislative agenda, reducing the need for cross-party negotiations on routine bills. With a clear majority, the party can more easily pass budgetary measures and policy reforms that align with the administration's priorities.

The Green Ecologist Party's second-place finish positions it as a potential junior partner in any effort to build a supermajority for constitutional changes. Morena may seek its support to reach the thresholds required for amendments, which could shape the composition of future coalitions and influence policy concessions.

Winning state congresses in the state of Mexico, Oaxaca and Baja California expands Morena's influence beyond its traditional strongholds, allowing it to shape regional legislation and local governance. Control of these varied regions offers the party a broader base for implementing national programs at the subnational level.

Despite the dominance, Morena will still need to manage internal party dynamics and navigate the senate, where it did not secure a comparable lead. The need for cooperation in the upper chamber and the possibility of opposition resistance on controversial reforms introduce uncertainty into the Legislative process.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2024 Mexican general election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Mexican_general_election)
- [2027 Mexican legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_Mexican_legislative_election)
- [Elections in Mexico - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Mexico)
- [2021 Mexican legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Mexican_legislative_election)

## What this was built from

- **Mexico Legislative Election Winner**: Morena, 95%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-winner)
- **Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?**: PVEM, 56%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place)
- **State of Mexico Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 92%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/state-of-mexico-congress-election-winner)
- **Baja California Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 74%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/baja-california-congress-election-winner)
- **Puebla Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 87%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puebla-congress-election-winner)
- **Yucatán Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 69%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/yucatan-congress-election-winner)
- **Campeche Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 61%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/campeche-congress-election-winner)
- **Zacatecas Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 72%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/zacatecas-congress-election-winner)
- **Oaxaca Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 89%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/oaxaca-congress-election-winner)
- **Chiapas Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 78%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/chiapas-congress-election-winner)
- **Colima Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 66%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/colima-congress-election-winner)
- **Michoacán Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 70%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/michoacan-congress-election-winner)
- **Tlaxcala Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 78%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/tlaxcala-congress-election-winner)
- **Chihuahua Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 26%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/chihuahua-congress-election-winner)
- **Quintana Roo Congress Election Winner**: Morena, 82%; settles Monday, 7 June 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quintana-roo-congress-election-winner)