# AfD won Saxony-Anhalt election with just over 40% of vote

*Politics. 40% certain. Monday, 7 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**AfD topped the Saxony-Anhalt vote with just over 40%, while Sven Schulze was appointed Ministerpräsident.**

The Alternative für Deutschland emerged as the largest party in the Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sunday, securing just over 40% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party fell to a single-digit share, while the Greens cleared the 5% threshold. The Free Citizens' party (BSW) remained below that level. Despite its plurality, the AfD failed to obtain an absolute majority of seats, and Sven Schulze was named Ministerpräsident.

AfD's vote share exceeded 40%, a level confirmed by the final count on Monday. However, the party did not reach the seat majority required to govern alone.

The Greens outperformed the BSW, becoming the second-largest non-AfD force. Their result ensured representation in the Landtag.

The BSW received between three and five percent of the vote, falling short of the 5% threshold that would have guaranteed seats. Its share placed it behind the Greens in the final tally. The party therefore entered the parliament without representation.

Sven Schulze, a member of the CDU, was elected Ministerpräsident by the new parliament on Sunday. His appointment follows the coalition talks triggered by the election outcome.

## Analysis

AfD's plurality shows a strong right-wing presence in Saxony-Anhalt, but its inability to secure an outright majority means it must seek partners, limiting unilateral policy moves.

The SPD's drop to a single-digit share reflects a weakening of the traditional centre-left base in the state, which may affect its influence both regionally and nationally.

The Greens' clearance of the 5% hurdle keeps them in the legislature and positions them as potential coalition partners, while the BSW's sub-5% result excludes it from Parliamentary representation.

Sven Schulze's appointment as Ministerpräsident, despite AfD's lead, indicates a governing coalition that likely excludes the AfD, shaping the state's policy agenda while leaving the exact coalition composition uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 94%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/spd-above-5-in-2026-saxonyanhalt-st)
- **Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/NFNL2zc/will-the-afd-win-an-absolute-majori)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner**: AfD, 100%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?**: 5-7%, 65%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share)
- **Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 76%; settles Monday, 7 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-the-afd-win-more-than-40-of-th)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?**: 7-9%, 56%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share)
- **Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?**: Sven Schulze, 73%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-ministerprasident-of-sachsen-anhalt-20260806155819619)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?**: 9-12%, 50%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-linke-vote-share)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?**: 20-23%, 42%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-vote-share)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?**: 39-42%, 40%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?**: Over, 80%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-over-under-5-percent)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?**: Over, 53%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-over-under-42-percent)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?**: Grüne, 95%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-grune-or-bsw)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?**: 3-5%, 79%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share)
- **Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?**: did not happen, 85%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/238706/will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-landtag-election)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?**: Under, 89%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-over-under-5-percent)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?**: SPD, 80%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune)