# AfD topped Saxony-Anhalt vote with over 40%, Schulze named Minister-President *Politics. 42% certain. Monday, 7 September 2026* > Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened. **SPD cleared the 5% threshold while the Greens surpassed that mark and outpolled the BSW.** The 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election produced a fragmented parliament. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) topped the poll, winning more than 40% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) cleared the 5% electoral hurdle, posting a share between five and seven percent. The Greens also exceeded five percent and placed ahead of the BSW, while Sven Schulze was designated the next Minister-President. The AfD's performance was confirmed on Monday, when the final count showed its vote share surpassed the 40% mark. This made it the largest party in the Landtag for the first time since the 2021 election. The result contributed to the absence of a clear governing majority. Its final tally fell within the five-to-seven percent interval. The party's modest share kept it represented in the parliament but far from a governing bloc. Their total exceeded that of the Bürgerliche-Soziale Wahl (BSW), giving them the higher position among the two. The outcome placed the Greens as a potential coalition partner in the fragmented assembly. Sven Schulze was named the next Minister-President following the election results. His appointment was finalized on Sunday after the Parliamentary composition was known. ## Analysis With the AfD capturing over 40% of the vote, the party now holds a dominant position in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag. This level of support strengthens the right-wing bloc and forces other parties to consider its policy priorities when forming a coalition. The absence of a clear majority means that any governing arrangement will require compromises with parties that differ significantly in ideology. The SPD's clearance of the 5% hurdle ensures its continued presence in the parliament, but its 5-7% share limits its leverage. As a historically central player, the party now faces reduced bargaining power and must decide whether to join a centre-left coalition or support a broader alliance that may include the Greens. Its modest vote share also reflects broader challenges for the centre-left in the region. Their position makes them a potential kingmaker, as larger parties will need their seats to reach a workable majority. The Greens' policy agenda may therefore gain greater influence than their raw numbers suggest. His leadership will shape which parties can coalesce around a governing program, and his ability to bridge gaps between the AfD, SPD, Greens and other groups will be critical. The final composition of the governing coalition remains uncertain, and the balance of power will depend on how the parties negotiate their divergent priorities. ## What this was built from - **SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 93%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/spd-above-5-in-2026-saxonyanhalt-st) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?**: 5-7%, 45%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share) - **Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 80%; settles Monday, 7 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-the-afd-win-more-than-40-of-th) - **Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?**: Sven Schulze, 72%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-ministerprasident-of-sachsen-anhalt-20260806155819619) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?**: 20-23%, 42%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?**: Over, 55%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-over-under-42-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?**: 39-42%, 43%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?**: Over, 72%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-over-under-5-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?**: Under, 53%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-linke-over-under-12-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?**: Grüne, 93%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-grune-or-bsw) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?**: Under, 59%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-over-under-23-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?**: Grüne, 54%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune)