# Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined

*Culture. 70% certain. Saturday, 10 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped the Odyssey daily, Drake missed September album deadline, and Community scored below 75 on Metacritic.**

The anticipated box-office rivalry, sequel earnings expectations, a comedy's critical reception, and a pop star's album timetable all diverged from predictions. The actual outcomes revealed a dominant superhero performance, a weaker sequel, a delayed record, and a lukewarm review.

Spider-Man 4 generated a domestic total that surpassed the combined earnings of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 through September. In contrast, Spider-Man: Brand New Day consistently earned more than the Odyssey each day from September 14 to 30. The daily margin favored the superhero sequel throughout the two-week span.

The Odyssey failed to top the box office on any day during the mid-to-late-September window. Its daily grosses remained below those of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, confirming the latter's steady lead. The pattern held for the entire fourteen-day period examined.

No release appeared on any platform through September 30. The artist's schedule therefore remained unchanged entering October.

The Community film received a Metacritic rating below the 75 threshold. Critics' scores aggregated to a figure that fell short of the benchmark. The result signaled a modest reception compared with higher-rated releases.

## Analysis

The surprise box-office dominance of Spider-Man 4 suggests audiences continue to favor established superhero franchises over newer entries such as Toy Story 5 and Scream 7. The consistent daily lead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day over the Odyssey indicates that sequel momentum can outweigh competing titles even when the latter belong to different genres.

Drake's failure to drop an album by September's end removes a potential boost to streaming figures and may shift attention to other artists releasing New material in October.

## What this was built from

- **Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?**: No, 98%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/delfinasu/will-the-odyssey-gross-more-than-sp-ROqUpdcnUy)
- **Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?**: Yes, 99%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AdamBraff/through-september-2026-will-spiderm)
- **Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?**: No, 70%; settles Saturday, 10 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-community-movie-get-a-75-o)
- **Will Drake release a new album by September 30?**: No, 91%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-drake-release-a-new-album-by)