# Social Democrats won Sweden's 2026 Parliamentary election

*Politics. 30% certain. Sunday, 13 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The party secured 27-30% of the vote while the Sweden Democrats finished second.**

Social Democrats won the 2026 Swedish Parliamentary election. They received between 27 and 30 percent of the vote. The Sweden Democrats placed second and the Moderate Party third.

The Christian Democrats maintained representation in the Riksdag. They remained above the electoral threshold.

The Liberal Party failed to secure any seats. Their loss Left them without Parliamentary representation for the first time in decades.

The Sweden Democrats received more votes than the Moderates, confirming their lead over the Centre-right party. This vote advantage translated into a higher seat count for the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates, despite finishing third, retained a substantial Parliamentary bloc. Smaller parties divided the remaining seats among themselves.

No seats were awarded to the Örebropartiet, which fell below the threshold. The distribution of the residual seats involved parties such as the Left Party, Green Party and others. Together they formed the balance of power in the new parliament.

## Analysis

With the Social Democrats securing the plurality of votes, they will need to form a coalition to command a Parliamentary majority. Their 27-30 percent share falls short of an outright majority, making alliances essential for governing. The party's Centre-Left platform will shape the agenda of any coalition it joins.

The Sweden Democrats' second-place finish gives them significant leverage in coalition negotiations. Their position as the largest right-wing force means they can influence policy, especially on immigration and law-order issues. However, traditional Centre-right parties may be wary of aligning with them due to ideological differences.

The Liberal Party's loss of all seats removes a Moderate voice from the Centre-right bloc, potentially shifting the balance toward more polarized options. The Christian Democrats' continued presence preserves a socially conservative element that can act as a bridge between the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats.

Smaller parties that split the remaining seats will hold the balance of power in a fragmented parliament. Their support could be decisive for both Centre-Left and Centre-right coalitions, giving them leverage disproportionate to their size. The final composition of the governing coalition therefore remains uncertain, pending negotiations among all Parliamentary groups.

## What this was built from

- **Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner**: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), 98%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?**: 27-30%, 54%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-s-vote-share-20260812172636410)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place**: Sweden Democrats (SD), 81%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-2nd-place)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place**: Moderate Party (M), 79%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-3rd-place)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?**: No, 57%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-liberals-win-seats-20260812164320900)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?**: No, 79%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-orebropartiet-win-seats-20260825132452)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place**: Centre Party (C), 37%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-6th-place-20260812164320300)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place**: Centre Party (C), 38%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-4th-place-20260812164320100)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place**: Left Party (V), 30%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-5th-place-20260812164320200)
- **Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?**: SD, 67%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-sd-or-m-20260812170140800)
- **Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?**: Yes, 89%; settles Saturday, 12 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Pazzaz/christian-democrats-still-in-riksda)