# United States ended its blockade of Iran

*World|Politics. 50% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The blockade was lifted and the United States acquired no territory in Greenland or Cuba in 2026.**

On Friday, the United States formally announced the end of its maritime blockade of Iran. The declaration came after a year of diplomatic talks and the removal of naval interdictions in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, Washington reported that it had not seized any new territory abroad in 2026. The administration emphasized a shift toward diplomatic engagement rather than coercive measures.

Throughout 2026 the United States made no move to acquire Greenland or any portion of the island. Negotiations with Denmark remained limited to existing NATO arrangements. No legislative or executive action was taken to alter the status of Greenland.

The United States also refrained from military action against Cuba during the year. Neither an invasion nor an air strike was launched on Cuban soil. Relations with Havana continued through conventional diplomatic channels.

Efforts to obtain Iranian enriched uranium did not succeed, and no material was transferred to U.S. facilities. The nuclear procurement program remained inactive throughout the calendar year.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz did not resume to pre-conflict levels by the end of December. Vessels continued to report delays and rerouting due to lingering security concerns.

## Analysis

By ending the naval interdiction, Washington may aim to rebuild channels for dialogue and reduce the risk of accidental escalation in the Persian Gulf. However, the effectiveness of this approach depends on Tehran's response and the willingness of regional actors to engage constructively.

The absence of any attempt to acquire Greenland or any other territory in 2026 curtails a long-standing, albeit sporadic, ambition within certain U.S. political circles. Without a purchase or annexation, the United States avoids the diplomatic friction such a move would generate with Denmark, NATO allies, and Arctic stakeholders.

In refraining from an invasion or air strike against Cuba, the United States maintained the status quo in a region where military interventions have historically drawn criticism. Nonetheless, the underlying disagreements between Washington and Havana remain unresolved, leaving room for future diplomatic pressure.

The continued suppression of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz indicates that the lifted blockade alone has not restored normal maritime patterns. Future developments will hinge on whether diplomatic efforts can translate into tangible security guarantees that encourage fuller resumption of trade.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Proposed United States acquisition of Greenland - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_acquisition_of_Greenland)
- [Greenland crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_crisis)
- [Greenland: A timeline of Trump's interest in US acquisition | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/trump-greenland-denmark-timeline-b32ca9f63dd31333c1d6e64fb3d6403e)
- [Trump Once Vowed to ‘Own’ Greenland. He Settled for Something Much Less. - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/us/politics/trump-greenland-denmark-agreement.html)

## What this was built from

- **Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027)
- **Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026)
- **US strike on Cuba by December 31?**: No, 90%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-cuba-by)
- **Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026)
- **US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?**: Yes, 50%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 82%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)