# U.S. gasoline averaged $4 per gallon on Oct. 1

*Economics. 91% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Crude Oil prices stayed below historic highs, with WTI never falling to $80 in September.**

On Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, the U.S. Average gasoline price reached $4 per gallon. The price rise occurred even though Crude Oil prices did not set a new all-time high by the end of September. During September, West Texas Intermediate traded below $110 a barrel and never slipped to $80.

The $4 per gallon level was recorded across major metropolitan areas. Retail pumps posted the same Average, confirming the national figure. The price remained at or above $4 throughout the day.

Crude Oil prices in September failed to break previous record levels. No new all-time high was logged by September 30.

West Texas Intermediate traded within a narrow band during September. The benchmark never fell to $80 a barrel. Prices stayed under $110 for the entire month.

## Analysis

The $4 gasoline price, despite relatively modest Oil prices, signals that downstream factors are influencing retail fuel costs. Consumers will feel the pinch, especially in regions with higher travel demand. Policymakers may see pressure to address price drivers beyond Crude

The absence of a new Oil price record suggests that global supply dynamics remain constrained but not at peak levels. This stability may limit the upside risk for gasoline but does not guarantee lower retail prices.

Uncertainty remains about how long the $4 level will persist. Future shifts in refinery capacity, seasonal demand, or geopolitical events could alter the relationship between Crude and gasoline.

## What this was built from

- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?**: Yes, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4000-or-mor)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?**: No, 91%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?**: No, 91%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by)