# Ahead of Print *The year ahead, reported from the odds* **Edition of Friday, 3 September 2027.** Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026. > Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events > that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had. ## Chang San-cheng won Taoyuan mayoral race *Politics. 79% certain.* Ann Kao won Hsinchu City mayoralty and Lee Shu-chuan won New Taipei. [Read the full report](/article/taiwan-local-elections-june-30-2026) ## Fed ended 2026 with rates at 4.0% after single Hike *Economics. 40% certain.* The central bank made no cuts and kept the lower bound above 2.75%. [Read the full report](/article/fed-policy-2026) ## Anthropic topped AI model rankings and reached $1.75 trillion valuation *Science. 67% certain.* OpenAI launched Astra and GPT-6, kept its US base and stayed under a $2 trillion valuation. [Read the full report](/article/ai-industry-2026-milestones) ## Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's supreme leader in 2026 *World. 78% certain.* The United States did not declare war on Iran and the country kept its nuclear program active. [Read the full report](/article/iran-leadership-nuclear-status-2026) ## Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office *Culture. 55% certain.* Avengers: Doomsday posted the year's biggest opening weekend and Bad Bunny led Spotify streams. [Read the full report](/article/2026-entertainment-leaders) ## United States remained in NATO throughout 2026 *World. 94% certain.* Washington kept its NATO membership and avoided direct conflict with Russia in 2026. [Read the full report](/article/us-nato-alliance-stable-2026) ## Xavier Becerra elected governor of California *Politics. 65% certain.* Kamala Harris chose not to run, and a Billionaire wealth tax was rejected. [Read the full report](/article/california-2026-political-landscape) ## Democrats captured the house and senate in 2026 Midterms *Politics. 51% certain.* The party won control of the house and gained a senate majority. [Read the full report](/article/us-2026-midterm-democratic-sweep) ## Lula re-elected president of Brazil *World. 60% certain.* Latvia's as party won the Parliamentary election and Israel's government remained intact. [Read the full report](/article/global-election-and-referendum-roundup-2026) ## Israel kept Iran ceasefire, held Lebanon talks, did not withdraw *World. 82% certain.* The Iran ceasefire lasted through September and Israel opened diplomatic talks with Lebanon while retaining troops there. [Read the full report](/article/israel-iran-lebanon-diplomacy-2026) ## Bitcoin peaked at $80,000 in September but missed $90,000 milestone *Crypto. 80% certain.* The cryptocurrency rose to $80,000 in late September yet failed to set a new all-time high or reach $90,000. [Read the full report](/article/bitcoin-september-price-surprise) ## United Russia kept Duma majority with 325-339 seats *Politics. 30% certain.* United Russia won 325-339 seats in the Duma as voter Turnout hit 53-56 percent. [Read the full report](/article/russian-parliamentary-election-results) ## Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed constrained as US blockade persisted *World. 91% certain.* Iran kept control of Kharg Island and the Bab el-Mandeb stayed open. [Read the full report](/article/middle-east-maritime-disruption) ## Carlos Alcaraz won the 2026 US Open men's singles *Sports. 37% certain.* Alcaraz triumphed in New York while Alexander Zverev finished runner-up. [Read the full report](/article/us-open-men-2026-alcaraz-crowned) ## United Russia won every region in 2026 Duma election *World. 60% certain.* Yabloko failed to meet the electoral threshold, and the Bank of Russia left policy unchanged. [Read the full report](/article/russia-elections-2026) ## Swedish Social Democrats won election, forming coalition under Magdalena Andersson *Politics. 50% certain.* Sweden Democrats secured over 20% of the vote while Christian Democrats retained their Riksdag seats. [Read the full report](/article/swedish-parliamentary-election-outcome) ## AfD topped Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote in September elections *Politics. 46% certain.* Linke won Berlin's state parliament while Belit Onay and Katharina Pötter secured mayoralties in Hannover and Osnabrück. [Read the full report](/article/german-subnational-elections-september-2026) ## Helena Foulkes and Elaine Pelino won Rhode Island governor primaries *Politics. 83% certain.* Helena Foulkes secured the Democratic gubernatorial nod and Kim Ahern captured the Democratic Attorney-general nomination. [Read the full report](/article/rhode-island-2026-primary-outcomes) ## Iga Swiatek defeated Nadia Podoroska at US Open *Sports. 57% certain.* Taylor Fritz beat Mattia Bellucci and Qinwen Zheng downed Yulia Putintseva in their US Open matches. [Read the full report](/article/us-open-2026-tennis-winners) ## A rival AI model topped the leaderboard on September 7 *Science. 81% certain.* OpenAI launched Astra on September 3 and a rival model led the AI leaderboard by September 7. [Read the full report](/article/openai-astra-launch-ai-model-ranking-september-2026) ## AfD led Saxony-Anhalt vote but fell short of majority *Politics. 41% certain.* AfD topped the vote with over 40% while SPD cleared the 5% hurdle and Sven Schulze took the Minister-President post. [Read the full report](/article/saxony-anhalt-2026-election) ## K27 upset Nemiga in IEM Beijing Qualifier *Sports. 51% certain.* K27 beat Nemiga on Thursday and HOTU defeated team Nemesis in the NODWIN Clutch Series. [Read the full report](/article/csgo-qualifier-playoffs-results) ## Susan Lahey won York, Simcoe Provincial by-election *Politics. 57% certain.* Fatima Shaban secured Scarborough Southwest while Jeff Beattie took Hamilton East, Stoney Creek. [Read the full report](/article/canada-provincial-by-elections-sep-3-2026) --- Assembled from 37272 live markets across futuur, manifold, polymarket, predictit.