AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 14 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 14 September 2027

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Politics

Democrats clinched California governorship and Los Angeles mayoralty

Xavier Becerra won California's governor seat while Karen Bass secured the Los Angeles mayor's office.

53% certain
lead market 53%next 46%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov8 markets behind this

Democrats secured the California governorship and the Los Angeles mayoralty in the 2026 election cycle. Xavier Becerra won the governor's race while Karen Bass captured the city's top office. Republican candidates held the governorships in New Hampshire and Texas, and Democrats added Wisconsin to their tally.

On Tuesday, 3 November, Xavier Becerra was elected governor of California. The outcome confirmed that a Republican did not secure the office. Becerra's victory maintained Democratic control of the state.

The Los Angeles Mayoral election was decided on Thursday, 31 December. Karen Bass won, defeating Nithya Raman. Bass's victory added another Democratic win to the year's results.

Republican candidates retained the governorships in New Hampshire and Texas, as Democrats failed to win those contests on 3 November.

The November elections concluded on the 3rd and 4th, while the Los Angeles race finished on 31 December. The outcomes left Democrats in control of California and Wisconsin governorships and the Los Angeles mayoralty.

Analysis

Xavier Becerra's election keeps the California governorship in Democratic hands, preserving the party's agenda on climate, health and immigration. Karen Bass's victory adds another Democratic leader to the state's most populous city, extending the party's influence over municipal policy. Both wins occurred at the close of the 2026 cycle, cementing Democratic control of two of the nation's largest jurisdictions. The results also provide the party with a platform for future statewide initiatives.

Republican incumbents held onto the governorships in New Hampshire and Texas, showing the party's ability to defend its traditional bases. However, the lack of New Gubernatorial pickups indicates that Republicans did not expand their executive map in 2026. The outcomes suggest a status-quo dynamic rather than a shift in regional power.

Wisconsin's Democratic victory introduced a New governorship for the party, offsetting losses in New Hampshire and Texas. The defeats of Ritchie Torres in New York and Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio demonstrate that high-profile candidates from both parties failed to secure those offices. These results illustrate the variability of voter preferences across states. The mixed picture leaves the national balance of Gubernatorial seats unchanged overall.

The combined effect of the 2026 elections is a solidified Democratic presence in California and Los Angeles, alongside a modest expansion in Wisconsin. Republicans remain in control of New Hampshire and Texas, preserving their regional influence.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra, 92% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · polymarket, futuur · see the market
Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes, 76% settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?: No, 82% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No, 86% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No, 53% settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No, 93% settles Sunday, 29 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No, 96% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass, 67% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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