AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 9 October 2026
Edition of Saturday, 9 October 2027

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Culture

John Malkovich won best actor at the 2027 Oscars

Julianne Moore captured best actress while Paul Giamatti took home best supporting actor.

25% certain
lead market 25%next 20%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Jul6 markets behind this

The 2027 Academy Awards concluded on Thursday with a series of unexpected victories. John Malkovich received the best actor trophy, while Julianne Moore was honored as best actress. The ceremony also highlighted surprise wins in supporting categories and technical fields.

In The supporting acting awards, Anne Hathaway earned best supporting actress and Paul Giamatti took home best supporting actor. Their triumphs came over a field that had included Penélope Cruz for actress and Andrew Garfield, Robert Pattinson and Sam Rockwell for supporting actor.

The best Original Screenplay award went to Wild Horse Nine, displacing the Debut from the top spot. In the Makeup and Hairstyling category, the film Werwulf prevailed over competitors such as the Odyssey, Digger and Dune: Part Three.

The outcomes reflected a departure from the expected line-up, with several high-profile contenders being passed over. Matt Damon, Andrew Scott and Tom Cruise, who had been considered strong candidates for best actor, did not secure the award. Likewise, Penélope Cruz and the other listed nominees were outshone in their categories.

The ceremony presented the listed winners across six categories.

Analysis

Moore's best actress award adds to her already distinguished résumé, reinforcing her status among top-tier performers. Both victories may influence casting decisions, though the exact impact will depend on upcoming project announcements.

These outcomes could encourage studios to feature established actors in supporting parts, but the extent of any shift remains uncertain without data on subsequent casting trends.

Wild Horse Nine's Original Screenplay victory showcases a preference for fresh storytelling over more conventional fare such as the Debut.

The overall pattern of surprise winners suggests a possible recalibration of Academy voting dynamics, where traditional frontrunners were eclipsed by less expected choices.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: John Malkovich, 41% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore, 72% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine, 76% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti, 34% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway, 69% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner: Werwulf, 25% settles Thursday, 1 July 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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