AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 14 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 14 September 2027

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Science

Anthropic topped AI model rankings at end of September

OpenAI led text-to-Image while Overall arena scores broke 1520 but fell short of 1530.

77% certain
lead market 77%next 16%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct13 markets behind this

On Thursday, Anthropic secured the #1 position for AI models at the end of September. The Overall arena scores surpassed the 1520 mark but did not reach the 1530 threshold by September 30. No model achieved a 1530 Overall score.

Anthropic also led the text Arena Math category, edging out Google and other competitors. In the AI Agent arena, Anthropic claimed the top spot, with OpenAI taking the runner-up position. Google placed Second in the text Arena Math Lab rankings. These results highlighted Anthropic's strength across both mathematical reasoning and autonomous agents.

OpenAI captured the leading position in the text-to-Image arena, outperforming rivals in Image generation. The company also topped the Code Arena WebDev model rankings, delivering the highest-scoring web development AI. Anthropic earned the Second-best rank in the Code Arena WebDev Lab, following OpenAI's lead.

OpenAI secured the Second-best slot in the AI Agent Lab, trailing Anthropic. Its strong showing in text-to-Image and Image-editing tasks reinforced its competitive edge. The combined results placed OpenAI among the top performers across multiple categories.

Among Chinese firms, Alibaba emerged as the best AI company at the end of September. This distinction set Alibaba apart from other domestic competitors such as Moonshot, Z.ai and DeepSeek.

Analysis

Anthropic's ascent to the top Overall model ranking marks a shift from previous leaders and signals strong performance across multiple evaluation metrics, which may influence investor and developer confidence in its platform.

The company's dominance in both the text Arena Math and AI Agent categories suggests a focused capability in logical reasoning and autonomous decision-making, areas that are increasingly critical for advanced AI applications.

OpenAI's leadership in text-to-Image generation and its top score in the Code Arena WebDev model demonstrate the effectiveness of its recent investments in multimodal and developer-oriented AI, potentially expanding its adoption among creators and software teams.

Alibaba's position as the leading Chinese AI company highlights the growing competitiveness of domestic firms and could affect the regional AI ecosystem by encouraging further investment and collaboration within China's tech sector.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic, 94% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba, 87% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI, 82% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic, 93% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes, 90% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Anthropic, 83% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic, 97% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI, 92% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?: Google, 77% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI, 88% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic, 96% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of September?: OpenAI, 91% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: No, 96% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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