AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 6 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 6 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 6 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Monday, 6 September 2027.

Politics

Xavier Becerra elected governor as Karen Bass won Los Angeles mayoralty

California voters chose Becerra for governor, Bass for mayor, and turned down a Billionaire wealth-tax proposal.

65% certain
lead market 65%next 35%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec4 markets behind this

On Tuesday 3 November 2026, California voters chose Xavier Becerra as governor. The same election saw a proposal to impose a one-time wealth tax on billionaires fail to gain approval. Later, on Thursday 31 December 2026, Los Angeles voters elected Karen Bass as mayor.

Becerra secured the governorship over challenger Steve Hilton. Vice President Kamala Harris did not enter the race. The result was certified on Tuesday 3 November.

Voters rejected the proposed one-time wealth tax aimed at billionaires. The initiative failed to pass on Tuesday 3 November. The measure was decided the same day as the governor's race.

On Thursday 31 December 2026, Karen Bass won the Los Angeles Mayoral election. She defeated challenger Nithya Raman. The result was certified on Thursday 31 December.

The election calendar closed with the Mayoral certification on Thursday 31 December. Statewide results were announced after the November 3 vote, while the municipal result followed at year's end.

Analysis

His absence of a high-profile challenger and the decision by Kamala Harris not to run likely cleared a path for an intra-party contest, reinforcing Democratic dominance in statewide offices.

The defeat of the Billionaire one-time wealth-tax initiative indicates that California voters remain cautious about large-scale fiscal experiments targeting the ultra-rich, at least in the 2026 cycle. Without the additional revenue stream, the state will continue to rely on existing tax structures, limiting immediate funding options for ambitious budgetary proposals and signaling to legislators the political limits of wealth-tax measures.

Karen Bass's election as Los Angeles mayor adds a seasoned congressional leader to the city's executive office, potentially aligning municipal priorities with broader state and federal Democratic objectives. Her victory over Nithya Raman may shape the city's approach to housing, public safety and infrastructure, while also reflecting the electorate's preference for experienced governance in a city facing chronic challenges.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No, 99% settles Friday, 6 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra, 93% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · polymarket, futuur · see the market
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No, 72% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass, 65% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Back to the front page This article as Markdown
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.