AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 25 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 25 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 25 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Saturday, 25 September 2027.

Politics

Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 2026 French Presidential race

Jordan Bardella missed the runoff and Laurent Wauquiez will not appear on the 2027 ballot.

61% certain
lead market 61%next 7%1 venuesettles Sun 18 Apr5 markets behind this

On Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon secured victory in the 2026 French Presidential election.

Jordan Bardella, who had positioned himself as a leading contender, did not qualify for the runoff. His campaign fell short of the threshold required to move beyond the first round. The result removed a prominent far-right voice from the final contest.

Laurent Wauquiez also confirmed his absence from the 2027 Presidential ballot. The decision followed his earlier withdrawal from the race. His non-participation further reduced the number of established candidates for the next election.

Other notable candidates, including Dominique de Villepin and Éric Zemmour, also failed to claim the presidency. Their campaigns concluded without reaching the final round. The election therefore delivered a clear victory for Mélenchon.

Analysis

The new president will need to assemble a governing coalition, a process that will test the compatibility of his supporters with other parliamentary groups. The outcome also sets the agenda for the next election cycle, as parties recalibrate around the new leadership.

Bardella's failure to reach the runoff curtails the momentum of the far-right faction that had gained visibility in recent years. Without a presence in the final round, the party loses a platform to broadcast its agenda nationally, potentially weakening its recruiting and fundraising efforts. However, the loss may also motivate the movement to reorganize and prepare for future contests.

Wauquiez's decision not to stand in the 2027 race removes a seasoned right-wing figure from the field, opening space for emerging leaders to vie for the conservative electorate. This could lead to a reconfiguration of the right-hand bloc as parties seek new candidates to fill the void. The altered candidate roster may affect voter alignment and the overall competitiveness of the upcoming Presidential contest.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 61% settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No, 92% settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 94% settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No, 94% settles Sunday, 18 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 97% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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