AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 22 September 2027

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Economics

Treasury yields held above 4.76% as Colombia and Israel left rates unchanged

The 10-year Treasury stayed between 4.76% and 5.10% while Colombia and Israel kept their policy rates steady.

63% certain
lead market 63%next 24%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Sept4 markets behind this

On Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained above 4.76% throughout September and did not rise above 5.10%. Both the Central Bank of Colombia and the Bank of Israel left their key rates unchanged.

Colombia's monetary authority reviewed its stance on 30 September and opted to maintain the current policy rate. The decision followed a period of stable inflation and modest economic growth. No adjustment was made to the benchmark rate.

Israel's Central Bank announced on 21 October that it would keep its policy rate unchanged. The move reflected ongoing assessments of domestic price pressures. The unchanged rate maintained the existing monetary framework.

Throughout the reporting period, the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated within the 4.76%, 5.10% corridor. The stability of the yield contrasted with the policy-rate stasis in Colombia and Israel. No further movements were recorded before the close of business on Wednesday.

Analysis

The confinement of the 10-year Treasury yield to a 0.34-percentage-point band suggests limited volatility in U.S. long-term financing costs during September. With yields not dropping below 4.76%, borrowers faced relatively higher borrowing costs than they would have under a lower rate environment. At the same time, the ceiling of 5.10% kept the cost of debt from climbing further, which may have eased pressure on budget planning.

Both Colombia and Israel choosing to hold their policy rates signals that their Central banks did not see immediate need to tighten or ease monetary conditions. For Colombia, the steady rate likely reflects confidence that inflation remains manageable without additional stimulus. In Israel, the unchanged rate indicates that the monetary authority judged price pressures to be within its target range.

The combination of stable U.S. Treasury yields and unchanged rates in the two countries may support a perception of monetary policy continuity across regions. The current environment therefore offers limited guidance on the direction of rates beyond the observed period.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No, 93% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?: No, 79% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change, 63% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change, 79% settles Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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