AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 12 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 12 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 12 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Sunday, 12 September 2027.

World

US failed to acquire Greenland or attack Cuba in 2026

No US military strike hit Cuba and Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted.

82% certain
lead market 82%next 19%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec5 markets behind this

In 2026 the United States took no major territorial or military actions. It did not acquire any part of Greenland, nor did it launch an invasion of Cuba. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted throughout the year.

The proposal to obtain Greenland never materialised during the year. The prospect that former President Trump might have secured the territory before 2027 also did not occur.

Throughout 2026 the United States refrained from any ground operation against Cuba. No troops were deployed and no combat zones were opened. The year closed without any reported U.S. assault on Cuban soil.

Shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz failed to return to normal levels by the end of the year. Vessels continued to experience delays and rerouting due to ongoing tensions. The disruption persisted despite diplomatic efforts.

In 2026 the United States did not add Greenland to its territory, did not launch a Cuban invasion, and did not restore normal Hormuz traffic. No strike against Cuba was recorded during the year. The maritime corridor through Hormuz stayed disrupted through December.

Analysis

The absence of a Greenland acquisition leaves the United States without a new Arctic foothold, limiting its direct influence in that region.

By not invading or striking Cuba, the United States avoided a potential escalation in the Caribbean that could have drawn in regional actors and heightened tensions with Russia or China. The decision also sidesteps the humanitarian and political costs associated with a large-scale military operation.

Continuing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz sustains pressure on global oil shipments, as the waterway remains a chokepoint for energy transport.

The combined lack of territorial expansion and major military strikes suggests a cautious U.S. posture in 2026, focusing on diplomatic and economic tools rather than kinetic actions. However, the unresolved Hormuz congestion indicates that strategic challenges persist, and future developments will depend on regional negotiations and broader geopolitical dynamics.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No, 94% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No, 97% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No, 87% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No, 94% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No, 82% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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