AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 12 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 12 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 12 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Tuesday, 12 October 2027.

Politics

Luca Niculescu became Romania's Prime Minister

Chiang Wan-an won Taipei's mayoralty and Bola Tinubu secured Nigeria's presidency.

67% certain
lead market 67%next 33%1 venuesettles Sun 29 Nov5 markets behind this

Chiang Wan-an was elected Mayor of Taipei, ending the city's mayoral race. Luca Niculescu assumed the office of Prime Minister in Romania after a prolonged deadlock. Bola Tinubu won Nigeria's Presidential contest, German state coalitions formed with AfD backing, and Ukraine did not hold a national election by the start of 2027.

The Taipei mayoral election concluded on 29 November with Chiang Wan-an receiving the majority of votes. His victory was confirmed as the final count settled the contest. The result ended competition from candidates Puma Shen and Kuo Hsi.

Romania's political stalemate ended when Luca Niculescu was appointed Prime Minister on 31 December. The appointment was finalized after the president's nomination process concluded. Niculescu's selection prevailed over the alternative candidate Ilie Bolojan.

Nigeria's Presidential election delivered its result on 17 January, naming Bola Tinubu the winner. The outcome was recorded after the vote count was completed. Tinubu's victory came ahead of other contenders such as Peter Obi, Omoyele Sowore and Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Following the 2026 state elections, several German state governments were formed with the support of the AfD on 31 December. These coalition arrangements relied on the far-right party to secure a governing majority. In contrast, Ukraine did not conduct a national election by 1 January, leaving the existing political structure unchanged. The decision was logged as a negative answer to whether an election had been held.

Analysis

Each result removes a lingering question about leadership, allowing governments to move from campaign mode to governance. The diversity of contexts, from a city Mayor to a national presidency, illustrates how electoral cycles can converge worldwide, creating a snapshot of global political realignment.

Romania's appointment of Luca Niculescu ends a protracted deadlock that had hampered legislative activity. By selecting a Prime Minister acceptable to the president and parliamentary factions, the country restores functional executive capacity. This stability is likely to improve Romania's ability to meet European Union policy obligations and to negotiate domestic reforms without the spectre of another caretaker administration.

Bola Tinubu's victory in Nigeria positions a seasoned politician at the helm of Africa's most populous nation. The result may shape Nigeria's economic reforms, security policies and regional diplomatic posture, especially as the country navigates internal challenges and its role in West African alliances.

This development could affect policy directions on migration, fiscal matters and relations with the European Union. Meanwhile, Ukraine's decision not to hold a national election leaves its political leadership unchanged, a factor that may influence its ongoing response to external pressures and internal reforms.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an, 67% settles Sunday, 29 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu, 97% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?: No, 96% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?: Yes, 74% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · manifold · see the market
Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: Bola Tinubu, 75% settles Sunday, 17 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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