AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 22 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 22 Sept · not a record of events

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World

U.S. stayed in NATO and skipped Iran invasion

The United States kept its NATO membership and avoided an invasion of Iran in 2026.

85% certain
lead market 85%next 16%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan4 markets behind this

On Friday, the United States confirmed it remained a member of NATO, with no withdrawal before 2027. The decision aligned with a broader stance of avoiding new military engagements. The administration also refrained from initiating an invasion of Iran.

No declaration of withdrawal was made in November, confirming continuity in the alliance. This maintained the United States' commitments to collective defense.

In Eastern Europe, the war in Ukraine continued without a ceasefire before the midterms. The United States did not broker a ceasefire in that timeframe.

The United States also avoided opening a new front in the Middle East. No military operation against Iran was launched before 2027, keeping regional tensions unchanged. The decision reflected a restraint in expanding the conflict.

Overall, the United States' foreign-policy posture in 2026 remained stable, with no major reversals, new wars, or NATO disengagement. This continuity was evident across the NATO, Ukraine, and Iran issues. The administration's approach signaled a focus on existing commitments rather than new initiatives.

Analysis

By maintaining its NATO membership, the United States signaled continued support for the collective defense framework that underpins trans-Atlantic security. This avoids the diplomatic disruption that a withdrawal would have caused among allies and preserves the status quo of military planning. The decision also sidesteps domestic political pressures that have occasionally called for a reevaluation of the alliance.

The absence of a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms indicates that the conflict remained unresolved through a major electoral cycle. Without a negotiated pause, the United States continued to provide its existing level of support to Kyiv without expanding its role to mediation.

Choosing not to invade Iran preserved the existing balance of power in the Middle East and averted opening a new theater of combat. This restraint reduces the risk of broader regional escalation and the attendant humanitarian and economic costs. Together with the NATO and Ukraine outcomes, the pattern suggests a foreign-policy approach that prioritizes stability over new interventions.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No, 85% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No, 98% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No, 94% settles Monday, 2 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No, 95% settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
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