AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 26 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 26 September 2027

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World

United States remained in NATO throughout 2026

NATO and Russia avoided direct military clashes and Russia did not launch new mobilization in 2026.

71% certain
lead market 71%next 30%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan4 markets behind this

The United States remained a member of NATO throughout 2026. No direct military clash between NATO forces and Russian troops occurred during the year. Russia also refrained from announcing a new wave of mobilization before November 2026.

The U.S. decision was confirmed on 1 January 2027, confirming that the alliance retained its full membership. The continuation avoided any formal withdrawal procedures or legislative actions. American participation in joint exercises and strategic planning continued unchanged.

Monitoring reports recorded no engagements between NATO and Russian units up to 31 October 2026. The absence of combat reduced the risk of escalation in Europe.

Russian authorities did not issue a new mobilization order before 31 October 2026. Existing conscription policies remained in effect, and no large-scale call-up was announced. The decision limited the expansion of Russia's active forces during the year.

Analysis

The United States staying in NATO preserved the alliance's collective defence posture, signalling continued political and military alignment with European partners. This stability discouraged potential challengers and maintained the status quo of transatlantic security arrangements.

The lack of a direct NATO-Russia clash throughout 2026 lowered the immediate risk of a broader armed conflict on the continent. Without combat incidents, diplomatic mechanisms could operate without the pressure of emergency escalation, allowing both sides to manage disputes through dialogue and existing confidence-building measures.

Russia's decision not to launch a new mobilization wave kept its armed forces at pre-existing levels, limiting any rapid increase in manpower that could have altered the regional balance. While this reduces short-term strain on Russian society, it leaves open uncertainty about future recruitment policies should the security environment change.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No, 98% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No, 71% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No, 84% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No, 81% settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
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