AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 26 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 26 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 26 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Sunday, 26 September 2027.

Politics

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister as other leaders stayed in office

Vladimir Putin remained Russia's president through 2026.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 30%1 venuesettles Tue 27 Oct6 markets behind this

Gadi Eizenkot assumed the premiership of Israel after the latest election. At the same time, Vladimir Putin continued as Russia's president through the end of 2026. Christopher Luxon remained New Zealand's Prime Minister through the 2026 election and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stayed president of Ukraine. Donald Trump stayed out of the U.S. presidency during 2026.

The Israeli vote concluded on 27 October, delivering a mandate to Eizenkot's party. Coalition talks produced a governing agreement that installed him as head of government.

Russia's presidential office saw no change by the close of 2026. Vladimir Putin retained the presidency throughout the year.

In New Zealand, Christopher Luxon led the government into the 2026 general election held on 7 November. He emerged still in charge as the election concluded. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy persisted as Ukraine's president through the same period.

Donald Trump did not hold the U.S. presidency at any point in 2026. His legal challenges continued, with hush-money convictions remaining in force. The Supreme Court declined to grant presidential immunity on 30 November, leaving the convictions unchanged.

Analysis

The continuity of incumbents in Russia, New Zealand and Ukraine suggests a period of political stability in those nations, allowing existing policies to proceed without the disruption of leadership turnover. Israel's shift to Gadi Eizenkot introduces a New governing perspective while the surrounding region observes a mix of change and constancy.

For Russia, Putin's sustained presidency may preserve its current foreign and domestic agenda, affecting relations with neighboring states and global partners. In New Zealand, Luxon's ongoing leadership through the election indicates voter confidence in his administration's direction, potentially influencing economic and environmental policies.

Ukraine's retention of Zelenskyy provides continuity amid ongoing security concerns, which could be crucial for maintaining international support and internal cohesion. Israel's New Prime Minister faces the task of navigating regional tensions, and his policy choices will shape diplomatic dynamics in the Middle East.

In the United States, Trump's continued absence from the presidency and the affirmation of his convictions maintain the status quo of the current administration's agenda.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 52% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No, 96% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes, 93% settles Saturday, 7 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No, 93% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Trump out as President before 2027?: No, 96% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity?: No, 89% settles Monday, 30 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
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