AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 5 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 5 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 5 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Sunday, 5 September 2027.

Politics

Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election

Marine Le Pen advanced to the runoff and Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the ballot.

Friday, 30 April 2027

29% certain
lead market 29%next 27%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Apr17 markets behind this

Édouard Philippe was declared the winner of the 2027 French Presidential election. His victory ended a runoff contest between the two leading candidates.

Marine Le Pen secured a place in the second round of the election. This development was logged on Friday 30 April. She joined Édouard Philippe as the final contenders.

Jordan Bardella failed to qualify for the second round. The determination was entered on Friday 30 April. His exclusion left only Philippe and Le Pen for the runoff. The first-round field therefore narrowed significantly.

Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the Presidential ballot. His name did not appear among the listed candidates. The final list of candidates proceeded without him.

The election timeline moved from the final candidate list on 17 April to first-round results on 30 April and culminated in the runoff result on 1 April. Balloting took place between those dates under the established schedule. The process concluded with Philippe's victory.

Analysis

Philippe's victory gives the centrist government a mandate to pursue its agenda, but it will need to navigate a fragmented parliament where coalition building may prove necessary.

Le Pen's advance to the runoff demonstrates the continued appeal of far-right ideas among a segment of voters, raising questions about how mainstream parties will address issues such as immigration and national identity. Her presence in the second round may influence the policy positions of other contenders as they seek to win over her supporters.

How the remaining parties reorganize around these changes could affect future electoral contests and the balance of power within the opposition.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Winner of France’s presidential election: Édouard Philippe, 29% settles Thursday, 1 April 2027 · futuur · see the market
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes, 87% settles Friday, 30 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No, 91% settles Friday, 30 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes, 87% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 88% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 97% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 88% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes, 88% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes, 67% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes, 56% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 94% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 90% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 73% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 71% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 74% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No, 94% settles Saturday, 17 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen, 32% settles Friday, 30 April 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.