79%Ann Kao won Hsinchu City mayoral race23%Christopher Nolan won best Director at 2027 Oscars38%Fed held rates at 4.0% in 2026 after one Hike61%2026 ended with no ceasefire or Peace deal in Russia-Ukraine war83%United States did not go to war with Iran in 202693%China did not invade Taiwan or clash with Japan in 202655%The Odyssey became Highest-grossing R-rated film65%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California19%S&P 500 closed above 7,710 as OpenAI launched GPT-650%Democrats retained control of house and senate in 2026 Midterms42%Lula won Brazil presidency after tight runoff qualification55%Liberal Party secured senate majority and Chamber win

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 4 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 4 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 4 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Saturday, 4 September 2027.

Politics

Ann Kao won Hsinchu City mayoral race

Lee Shu-chuan secured New Taipei mayoralty while Wang Mei-hui took Chiayi City.

79% certain
lead market 79%next 19%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Jun

On Wednesday, June 30, voters in three Taiwanese cities chose New mayors. Ann Kao emerged victorious in Hsinchu City. Lee Shu-chuan won the mayoralty in New Taipei, and Wang Mei-hui secured the position in Chiayi City.

The Hsinchu City mayoral tally was finalized on Wednesday. The election determined the City's leadership for the next term.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra91%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  3. Fed Decision in September?: No change58%Wed 16 Sept
  4. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  5. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)68%Wed 30 Sept
  7. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  9. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)86%Thu 31 Dec
  10. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  11. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  12. Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?: Yes99%Sun 1 Nov
  13. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  14. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  15. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro78%Sun 4 Oct
  17. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  18. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes77%Sun 6 Sept
  19. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson73%Sun 13 Sept
  20. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  21. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  22. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes97%Mon 14 Sept
  23. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes62%Wed 9 Dec
  24. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Thu 31 Dec
  25. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No73%Tue 3 Nov
  27. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%38%Wed 9 Dec
  28. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  29. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  30. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  32. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  33. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  35. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  37. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  41. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Ipswich Town FC vs. Liverpool FC: Liverpool FC71%Fri 4 Sept
  43. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  44. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury61%Sun 4 Oct
  46. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No77%Sat 31 Oct
  48. Fed Decision in October?: No change68%Wed 28 Oct
  49. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause59%Wed 16 Sept
  50. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No59%Wed 9 Dec
  52. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  53. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No80%Sat 12 Sept
  54. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  55. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: Manchester City FC90%Sat 5 Sept
  57. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  59. Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  60. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  62. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  63. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No61%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other54%Wed 28 Oct
  65. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  66. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  67. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No99%Thu 8 Oct
  68. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  69. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  70. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No83%Sun 1 Nov
  71. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No85%Thu 31 Dec
  72. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes56%Wed 9 Dec
  73. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  74. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  75. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%42%Sun 4 Oct
  76. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL84%Sun 4 Oct
  77. Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?: Yes92%Sat 5 Sept
  78. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  80. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Arsenal FC57%Sun 6 Sept
  81. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  82. Fed Decision in December?: No change44%Wed 9 Dec
  83. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday55%Fri 1 Jan
  84. Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  85. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  87. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: No96%Fri 4 Sept
  88. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No89%Fri 8 Jan
  89. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No84%Wed 16 Sept
  90. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change59%Fri 11 Sept
  91. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+54%Sun 13 Sept
  92. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  93. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes52%Sat 26 Sept
  94. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  95. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  97. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  98. Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC60%Sun 6 Sept
  99. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL55%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  101. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 419%Fri 4 Sept
  102. Which week will OpenAI release Astra?: August 31–September 659%Sun 13 Sept
  103. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  104. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%40%Fri 11 Sept
  105. EPL Week 3 Liverpool vs Ipswich- Will Liverpool WIN @ Ipswich?: Yes65%Sat 5 Sept
  106. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Helena Foulkes99%Tue 8 Sept
  108. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern69%Wed 9 Sept
  109. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales83%Wed 9 Sept
  110. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: OpenAI51%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes71%Thu 10 Sept
  112. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey48%Sun 14 Mar
  113. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: OpenAI67%Thu 1 Oct
  115. EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Manchester United FC beat Everton FC?: Yes51%Sun 6 Sept
  116. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office: 15m+94%Sun 6 Sept
  117. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: did not happen96%Tue 8 Sept
  118. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  119. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore27%Sun 14 Mar
  120. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: Matt Damon24%Sun 14 Mar
  121. August Inflation China - Annual: 0.5% - 0.6%42%Wed 9 Sept
  122. August Inflation US - Monthly: 0.4%76%Fri 11 Sept
  123. Argentina monthly inflation — August 2026: Between 1.5% and 1.7%52%Thu 10 Sept
  124. Alex Warren 'Wildchild' First Week Album Sales?: 70-90k99%Fri 4 Sept
  125. Rod Wave 'Don't Look Down' First Week Album Sales?: 105-125k95%Fri 4 Sept
  126. PPI YoY - August 2026: 5.1%+69%Thu 10 Sept
  127. Core CPI YoY - August 2026: 2.4%72%Fri 11 Sept
  128. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner: Ann Kao86%Wed 30 Jun
  129. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of September 12: Boston - Stella Lefty97%Tue 8 Sept
  130. Argentina Monthly Inflation - August: 1.8-2.0%98%Thu 10 Sept
  131. "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office: 11m+95%Sun 6 Sept
  132. Core CPI MoM - August 2026: 0.2%41%Fri 11 Sept
  133. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan80%Wed 30 Jun
  134. Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner: Wang Mei-hui79%Wed 30 Jun
  135. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 183%Tue 8 Sept
  136. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine30%Sun 14 Mar
  137. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey59%Sun 14 Mar
  138. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey45%Sun 14 Mar
  139. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  140. "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office: 5-6m31%Sun 6 Sept
  141. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of September 12: Don't Look Down - Rod Wave96%Tue 8 Sept
  142. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Black Ball24%Sun 14 Mar
  143. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway33%Sun 14 Mar
  144. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man94%Tue 8 Sept
  145. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti24%Sun 14 Mar
  146. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan51%Sun 14 Mar
  147. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look67%Tue 8 Sept
  148. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey40%Sun 14 Mar
  149. Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner: Dune: Part Three23%Sun 14 Mar
  150. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man94%Tue 8 Sept
  151. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Sabina Matos82%Wed 9 Sept
  152. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: The Gentlemen: Season 256%Tue 8 Sept
  153. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  154. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane59%Sat 31 Oct
  155. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  156. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei78%Thu 31 Dec
  157. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  158. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen33%Fri 30 Apr
  159. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  160. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No66%Tue 3 Nov
  161. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Thu 31 Dec
  163. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya21%Sat 10 Oct
  164. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3085%Thu 1 Oct
  166. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro80%Thu 31 Dec
  169. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  170. VA-06 House Election Winner: Republican Party91%Tue 3 Nov
  171. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli69%Sun 6 Dec
  172. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  173. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  174. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  176. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  177. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  179. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  180. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  181. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  182. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  183. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  185. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  186. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke45%Sun 20 Sept
  187. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  188. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  189. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  190. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  191. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes87%Sun 6 Dec
  192. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No97%Fri 2 Oct
  193. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA74%Thu 31 Dec
  194. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  195. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  198. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  200. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?: Yes91%Fri 4 Sept
  201. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  202. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No69%Mon 30 Nov
  203. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes99%Sat 5 Sept
  204. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  205. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz42%Sun 13 Sept
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  208. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  211. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  213. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  214. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  215. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  216. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  218. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No73%Thu 31 Dec
  219. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  222. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  223. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  224. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  225. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams17%Wed 31 Mar
  228. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  229. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  230. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  232. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic77%Thu 1 Oct
  233. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  234. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes95%Sun 6 Sept
  235. VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: VfB Stuttgart66%Fri 4 Sept
  236. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  237. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes67%Wed 16 Sept
  238. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  239. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No84%Sun 6 Sept
  240. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202692%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  242. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  243. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No75%Mon 2 Nov
  244. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  245. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  246. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No71%Fri 6 Nov
  247. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  248. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  250. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.